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French firms exports during downturns: evidence from past crises

Author

Listed:
  • Bellas, D.
  • Vincent Vicard

Abstract

This paper makes use of detailed French firm level data on a quarterly basis to investigate the impact of past crises on exports and the margins of adjustment. We first detect crises periods using quantitative criteria and classify them into banking crises, currency crises, simultaneous banking and currency crises, and other crises. Our results underline the prevalence of the intensive margin of adjustment to large shocks, i.e. firms reducing their average sales per product while staying on the market. The extensive margin of trade is however dominant in currency crises. On average, a crisis reduces the growth rate of exports over six quarters. Finally, we show that exports overreact to demand variations during crises, and that the extensive margin is more responsive to demand. Other factors, not directly related to demand, mostly affect the intensive margin.

Suggested Citation

  • Bellas, D. & Vincent Vicard, 2013. "French firms exports during downturns: evidence from past crises," Working papers 467, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:467
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Iacovone, Leonardo & Ferro, Esteban & Pereira-López, Mariana & Zavacka, Veronika, 2019. "Banking crises and exports: Lessons from the past," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 192-204.
    2. Kristian Behrens & Gregory Corcos & Giordano Mion, 2013. "Trade Crisis? What Trade Crisis?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 702-709, May.
    3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    4. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 134-146.
    5. Freund, Caroline, 2009. "The trade response to global downturns : historical evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5015, The World Bank.
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    2. Gregory Corcos & Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Salvador Gil-Pareja & Yuanzhe Tang, "undated". "Firm-level export and import survival over the business cycle," Working Papers 2022-22, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.

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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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