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¿Están sincronizados los ciclos económicos en Latinoamérica?

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  • Juliana Ávila Vélez
  • Álvaro José Pinzón Giraldo

Abstract

Se identifican los ciclos económicos de Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, México, Perú y Venezuela, utilizando el criterio del CEPR y el algoritmo Bry-Boschan (1971), aplicado al Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) y al Índice de Producción Industrial (IPI), respectivamente. Se mide el grado de sincronización del ciclo de dichas economías por medio del indicador de Harding y Pagan (2006) y de las correlaciones cruzadas de los componentes transitorios de las variables. El periodo muestral inicia en 1980 y termina en 2014. Se encuentra que el ciclo económico promedio según el PIB tiene una duración de 4 años, mientras que según el IPI su duración es de 4,4 años. Los ciclos identificados con los dos indicadores son asimétricos. Con los dos indicadores se identifican cuatro grandes crisis recientes que afectaron a Latinoamérica: 1982, 1998, 2000 y 2008. Sin embargo, al analizar las combinaciones de pares de países por separado, no se encuentra una alta sincronización entre ellos, con unas pocas excepciones como Chile-México y Chile-Colombia.

Suggested Citation

  • Juliana Ávila Vélez & Álvaro José Pinzón Giraldo, 2015. "¿Están sincronizados los ciclos económicos en Latinoamérica?," Borradores de Economia 864, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:864
    DOI: 10.32468/be.864
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General

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