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�Est�n sincronizados los ciclos econ�micos en Latinoam�rica?

Author

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  • Juliana �vila V�lez
  • �lvaro Jos� Pinz�n Giraldo

Abstract

Se identifican los ciclos econ�micos de Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, M�xico, Per� y Venezuela, utilizando el criterio del CEPR y el algoritmo Bry-Boschan (1971), aplicado al Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) y al �ndice de Producci�n Industrial (IPI), respectivamente. Se mide el grado de sincronizaci�n del ciclo de dichas econom�as por medio del indicador de Harding y Pagan (2006) y de las correlaciones cruzadas de los componentes transitorios de las variables. El periodo muestral inicia en 1980 y termina en 2014. Se encuentra que el ciclo econ�mico promedio seg�n el PIB tiene una duraci�n de 4 a�os, mientras que seg�n el IPI su duraci�n es de 4,4 a�os. Los ciclos identificados con los dos indicadores son asim�tricos. Con los dos indicadores se identifican cuatro grandes crisis recientes que afectaron a Latinoam�rica: 1982, 1998, 2000 y 2008. Sin embargo, al analizar las combinaciones de pares de pa�ses por separado, no se encuentra una alta sincronizaci�n entre ellos, con unas pocas excepciones como Chile-M�xico y Chile-Colombia.

Suggested Citation

  • Juliana �vila V�lez & �lvaro Jos� Pinz�n Giraldo, 2015. "�Est�n sincronizados los ciclos econ�micos en Latinoam�rica?," Borradores de Economia 12438, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:012438
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    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General

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