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Ciclos de negocios en Colombia, 1975-2011

Author

Listed:
  • Alfonso, Viviana
  • Arango, Luis Eduardo
  • Arias, Fernando
  • Cangrejo, Guillermo
  • Pulido, José David

Abstract

RESUMEN: Se propone una cronología para los ciclos de negocios de Colombia en la concepción clásica del NBER; esto es, determinando las fechas de picos y valles en la actividad económica sin separar las series utilizadas en sus componentes transitorio y permanente. La cronología estimada sugiere que los cuatro ciclos completos que se han presentado entre 1975 y 2011 son asimétricos y tienen una duración aproximada de 6,8 anos. Las expansiones duran en promedio 5,4 anos mientras que las contracciones tardan 1,3 anos. Los resultados se derivan de la utilización del índice de difusión acumulado con 41 series.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfonso, Viviana & Arango, Luis Eduardo & Arias, Fernando & Cangrejo, Guillermo & Pulido, José David, 2012. "Ciclos de negocios en Colombia, 1975-2011," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 78, pages 115-149, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000174:014810
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juliana Ávila Vélez & Álvaro José Pinzón Giraldo, 2015. "¿Están sincronizados los ciclos económicos en Latinoamérica?," Borradores de Economia 12438, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Patiño, Lourdes Isabel & Alcántara, Vicent & Padilla, Emilio, 2021. "Driving forces of CO2 emissions and energy intensity in Colombia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Andres Mauricio Gómez Sánchez & Juliana Isabel Sarmiento Castillo & Claudia Liceth Fajardo Hoyos, 2016. "Indicador global adelantado de corto y largo plazo para la economía del Cauca 1960-2014," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 35(62), pages 209-244, July.
    4. Luis Eduardo Arango & Freddy Felipe Parra-Escobar & Álvaro José Pinzón-Giraldo, 2016. "El ciclo económico y el mercado de trabajo en Colombia: 1984-2014," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 34(81), pages 206-228, December.
    5. Camilo Alberto Cárdenas-Hurtado & María Alejandra Hernández-Montes, 2019. "Understanding the Consumer Confidence Index in Colombia: A structural FAVAR analysis," Borradores de Economia 1063, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia & Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2021. "Labor Market Indicator for Colombia (LMI)," Borradores de Economia 1152, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Pavel Vidal Alejandro & Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Johana Sanabria Dominguez & Jaime Andres Collazos Rodríguez, 2015. "Indicador mensual de actividad económica (IMAE) para el Valle del Cauca," Borradores de Economia 900, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Edgar Vicente MARCILLO YÉPEZ, 2013. "Un indicador Líder para la actividad económica de Colombia," Archivos de Economía 11205, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    9. Luis Eduardo Arango & Lina Cardona-Sosa, 2015. "Determinants of consumer credit within a constrained framework: evidence from Colombian microdata," Borradores de Economia 912, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Fernando Arias Rodríguez & Celina Gaitán Maldonado & Johanna López Velandia, 2014. "Las entidades financieras a lo largo del ciclo de negocios: ¿está el ciclo financiero sincronizado con el ciclo de negocios?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(75), pages 28-40, December.
    11. Luz A. Flórez & Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2018. "Okun´s law in Colombia: a non-linear cointegration," Borradores de Economia 1039, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Luis Arango & Dolores Mata & Nataly Obando, 2015. "Echoes of the crises in Spain and US in the Colombian labor market: a differences-in-differences approach," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 441-477, November.
    13. Gustavo Leyva & Carlos Urrutia, 2023. "Informal Labor Markets in Times of Pandemic," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 158-185, January.
    14. Lina Cardona‐Sosa & Luz Adriana Flórez & Leonardo Fabio Morales & Banco de la República, 2018. "How does the Household Labour Supply Respond to the Unemployment of the Household Head?," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 32(4), pages 174-212, December.
    15. Arango, Luis Eduardo & Ríos, Ana María, 2015. "Duración del desempleo en Colombia: Género, intensidad de búsqueda y anuncios de vacantes," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6840, Inter-American Development Bank.
    16. Jorge Mario Uribe & Inés María Ulloa & Johanna Perea, 2015. "Reference financial cycle in Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 83, pages 33-62, Julio - D.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ciclos de negocios; cronología; difusión; fases; expansión; recesión; valle; pico;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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