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Ciclos de negocios en Colombia, 1975-2011

Author

Listed:
  • Alfonso, Viviana
  • Arango, Luis Eduardo
  • Arias, Fernando
  • Cangrejo, Guillermo
  • Pulido, José David

Abstract

RESUMEN: Se propone una cronología para los ciclos de negocios de Colombia en la concepción clásica del NBER; esto es, determinando las fechas de picos y valles en la actividad económica sin separar las series utilizadas en sus componentes transitorio y permanente. La cronología estimada sugiere que los cuatro ciclos completos que se han presentado entre 1975 y 2011 son asimétricos y tienen una duración aproximada de 6,8 años. Las expansiones duran en promedio 5,4 años mientras que las contracciones tardan 1,3 años. Los resultados se derivan de la utilización del índice de difusión acumulado con 41 series.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfonso, Viviana & Arango, Luis Eduardo & Arias, Fernando & Cangrejo, Guillermo & Pulido, José David, 2012. "Ciclos de negocios en Colombia, 1975-2011," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia - CIE, issue 78, pages 115-149, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000174:014810
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andres Mauricio Gómez Sánchez & Juliana Isabel Sarmiento Castillo & Claudia Liceth Fajardo Hoyos, 2016. "Indicador global adelantado de corto y largo plazo para la economía del Cauca 1960-2014," Revista Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 35(62), pages 209-244, July.
    2. Lina Cardona-Sosa & Luz Adriana Flórez & Leonardo Morales Zurita, 2016. "Intra-household labour supply after an unemployment event: The added worker effect," Borradores de Economia 944, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Fernando Arias Rodríguez & Celina Gaitán Maldonado & Johanna López Velandia, 2014. "Las entidades financieras a lo largo del ciclo de negocios: ¿está el ciclo financiero sincronizado con el ciclo de negocios?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(75), pages 28-40, December.
    4. Patiño, Lourdes Isabel & Alcántara, Vicent & Padilla, Emilio, 2021. "Driving forces of CO2 emissions and energy intensity in Colombia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia & Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2021. "Labor Market Indicator for Colombia (LMI)," Borradores de Economia 1152, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Edgar Vicente MARCILLO YÉPEZ, 2013. "Un indicador Líder para la actividad económica de Colombia," Archivos de Economía 011205, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    7. Luz A. Flórez & Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2018. "Okun´s law in Colombia: a non-linear cointegration," Borradores de Economia 1039, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Lina Cardona‐Sosa & Luz Adriana Flórez & Leonardo Fabio Morales & Banco de la República, 2018. "How does the Household Labour Supply Respond to the Unemployment of the Household Head?," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 32(4), pages 174-212, December.
    9. Lourdes Isabel Patiño & Vicent Alcántara Escolano & Emilio Padilla Rosa, 2019. "Driving forces of CO2 emissions and energy intensity in Colombia," Working Papers wpdea1905, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ciclos de negocios; cronología; difusión; fases; expansión; recesión; valle; pico;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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