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El ciclo económico y el mercado de trabajo en Colombia: 1984 - 2014

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Freddy Felipe Parra

    (Universidad de los Andes)

  • Álvaro José Pinzón

    (Universidad de los Andes)

Abstract

Presentamos la evolución de una decena de variables a lo largo del ciclo económico para distintas ciudades y grupos demográficos. Las fechas utilizadas para identificar las fases de recesión fueron tomadas de Alfonso et al. (2013). Se encuentra que la participación laboral aumenta en las contracciones mientras que la tasa de ocupación cae. La suma de estos dos hechos permite predecir sin ambigüedades que en las recesiones el desempleo aumenta. En particular, los cesantes, más que los aspirantes, siempre aumentan en los momentos de crisis; es decir, los despidos y la reinserción al mercado parecen ser los eventos más regulares durante los períodos de crisis. Los salarios y las horas trabajadas caen en las recesiones mientras que el subempleo por horas aumenta. La relación de asalariados a población en edad de trabajar se constituye en una variable clave para el estudio de las fases del ciclo ya que siempre se contrae durante las recesiones.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango & Freddy Felipe Parra & Álvaro José Pinzón, 2015. "El ciclo económico y el mercado de trabajo en Colombia: 1984 - 2014," Borradores de Economia 911, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:911
    DOI: 10.32468/be.911
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrés Álvarez & Marc Hofstetter, 2014. "Job vacancies in Colombia: 1976–2012," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez & Munir Jalil, 2008. "Cronología de los ciclos de negocios recientes en Colombia," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, June.
    3. Camilo Mondragón-Vélez & Ximena Peña & Daniel Wills, 2010. "Labor Market Rigidities and Informality in Colombia," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2010), pages 65-101, August.
    4. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    5. Viviana Alejandra Alfonso C., 2015. "The cyclical behavior of separation and job finding rates in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 910, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. López Castaño, Hugo & Lasso Valderrama,Francisco, 2015. "Flujos de trabajadores en el mercado laboral colombiano, determinantes de las diferencias entre hombres y mujeres, y futuro laboral esperado," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6877, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Alfonso, Viviana & Arango, Luis Eduardo & Arias, Fernando & Cangrejo, Guillermo & Pulido, José David, 2012. "Ciclos de negocios en Colombia, 1975-2011," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 78, pages 115-149, May.
    9. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis E. Arango & Luz A. Flórez & María A. Olarte-Delgado, 2019. "Precio del carbón y dinámica laboral en Valledupar," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 22(2), pages 313-370, December.
    2. Francisco Lasso-Valderrama & Laura Rodríguez-Quintero, 2018. "Ciclo y composición del cambio en los salarios: una aproximación a la estructura salarial de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1057, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Luis E. Arango & Luz A. Flórez, 2017. "Informalidad laboral y elementos para un salario mínimo diferencial por regiones en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1023, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ciclos económicos; tasa de participación; tasa de ocupación; tasa de desempleo; salarios.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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