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El ciclo econ�mico y el mercado de trabajo en Colombia: 1984 - 2014

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Eduardo Arango
  • Freddy Felipe Parra
  • �lvaro Jos� Pinz�n

Abstract

Presentamos la evoluci�n de una decena de variables a lo largo del ciclo econ�mico para distintas ciudades y grupos demogr�ficos. Las fechas utilizadas para identificar las fases de recesi�n fueron tomadas de Alfonso et al. (2013). Se encuentra que la participaci�n laboral aumenta en las contracciones mientras que la tasa de ocupaci�n cae. La suma de estos dos hechos permite predecir sin ambig�edades que en las recesiones el desempleo aumenta. En particular, los cesantes, m�s que los aspirantes, siempre aumentan en los momentos de crisis; es decir, los despidos y la reinserci�n al mercado parecen ser los eventos m�s regulares durante los per�odos de crisis. Los salarios y las horas trabajadas caen en las recesiones mientras que el subempleo por horas aumenta. La relaci�n de asalariados a poblaci�n en edad de trabajar se constituye en una variable clave para el estudio de las fases del ciclo ya que siempre se contrae durante las recesiones.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango & Freddy Felipe Parra & �lvaro Jos� Pinz�n, 2015. "El ciclo econ�mico y el mercado de trabajo en Colombia: 1984 - 2014," Borradores de Economia 13962, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:013962
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Camilo Mondragón-Vélez & Ximena Pe�a & Daniel Wills, 2010. "Labor Market Rigidities and Informality in Colombia," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2010), pages 65-101.
    2. Pierre Cahuc & André Zylberberg, 2004. "Labor Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026203316x, December.
    3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez & Munir Jalil, 2008. "Cronología de los ciclos de negocios recientes en Colombia," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    4. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Luis Eduardo Arango, 2013. "Puestos de trabajo vacantes seg�n anuncios de la prensa escrita de las siete principales ciudades de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 11097, Banco de la Republica.
    6. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    7. Luis Eduardo Arango, 2013. "Puestos de trabajo vacantes según anuncios de la prensa escrita de las siete principales ciudades de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 793, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. López Castaño, Hugo & Lasso Valderrama,Francisco, 2015. "Flujos de trabajadores en el mercado laboral colombiano, determinantes de las diferencias entre hombres y mujeres, y futuro laboral esperado," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6877, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, September.
    10. Viviana Alejandra Alfonso C., 2015. "The cyclical behavior of separation and job finding rates in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 910, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Lasso-Valderrama & Laura Rodríguez-Quintero, 2018. "Ciclo y composición del cambio en los salarios: una aproximación a la estructura salarial de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1057, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    JEL classification:

    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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