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LA DINÁMICA DEL MERCADO LABORAL COLOMBIANO: Cuál es el rol de los flujos de trabajadores?

Author

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  • Francisco Lasso-Valderrama

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

Abstract

Los flujos de la población en edad de trabajar entre estados laborales son una información primordial para comprender la dinámica del mercado de trabajo. Su estimación es hecha a partir del módulo de informalidad de las encuestas de hogares aplicado a las diez principales ciudades por el Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) en el segundo trimestre desde 1986 a 2019. Con base en estos flujos se construyen cadenas de Markov para dos periodos y cuatro estados laborales: asalariado, no asalariado, desocupado e inactivo. Los hallazgos muestran que las cadenas de Markov no son homogéneas en el tiempo, sin embargo, sus probabilidades de equilibrio predicen con buena precisión la población que tendrán los estados laborales un periodo adelante. Muestran también la existencia de un número importante de inactivos, incluso mayor que el número de desocupados, dispuesta a aceptar una "buena" oportunidad laboral y aún más si es asalariada. Este flujo de trabajadores secundarios inactivos que llega directamente al empleo y el que llega al desempleo son contra-cíclicos. Mientras el flujo de retiro a la inactividad desde el empleo es pro-cíclico y, desde el desempleo, aunque no significativo, es contra-cíclico. Por su parte, los modelos de búsqueda de empleo predicen acertadamente el movimiento de los trabajadores dentro de la fuerza laboral, la entrada al desempleo es contra-cíclica y la salida, al igual que el cambio de empleo, es pro-cíclica. Finalmente, las variaciones cíclicas de la ocupación asalariada y el desempleo tienen una relación inversa y están determinadas en un alto porcentaje por los flujos entre estas dos poblaciones; así mismo, los flujos entre los estados laborales no asalariado e inactivo son los más importantes en las fluctuaciones sincronizadas y contracíclicas de las tasas de ocupación no asalariada y de inactividad. **** ABSTRACT: The flows of the population of working age between labor states are essential information to understand the dynamics of the labor market. Its estimation is made from the informality module of household surveys applied to the ten main cities by the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) in the second quarter from 1986 to 2019. Based on these flows Markov chains are constructed for two periods and four labor states: salaried, non-salaried, unemployed and inactive. The findings show that the Markov chains are not homogeneous in time, however, their equilibrium probabilities predict with good precision the population that the labor states will have a period ahead. They also show the existence of a significant number of inactive, even greater than the number of unemployed, willing to accept a "good" job opportunity and even more so if they are salaried. This flow of inactive secondary workers that goes directly to employment and that goes to unemployment are counter-cyclical. While the flow of retirement to inactivity from employment is pro-cyclical and, from unemployment, although not significant, it is countercyclical. On the other hand, the job search models accurately predict the movement of workers within the workforce, the entry into unemployment is counter-cyclical and the exit, like the change in employment, is pro-cyclical. Finally, the cyclical variations in wage employment and unemployment have an inverse relationship and are determined in a high percentage by the flows between these two populations; likewise, the flows between the nonsalaried and inactive labor states are the most important in the synchronized and countercyclical fluctuations in the rates of non-salaried employment and inactivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Lasso-Valderrama, 2020. "LA DINÁMICA DEL MERCADO LABORAL COLOMBIANO: Cuál es el rol de los flujos de trabajadores?," Borradores de Economia 1120, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1120
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1120
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Desempleo; Flujos de trabajadores; Entradas y salidas del desempleo; Probabilidades de transición; Modelos de búsqueda de empleo; Unemployment; Worker flows; Unemployment inflows and outflows; Transition probabilities; Job search model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

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