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El mercado laboral y el problema pensional colombiano

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  • Hugo López Castaño

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  • Francisco Lasso Valderrama

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Abstract

Este artículo examina el problema que plantea la cobertura pensional de los colombianos menos educados y más vulnerables. Relaciona las tendencias del mercado laboral con la baja cobertura pensional: el sesgo del empleo urbano moderno contra los menos educados ha generado para estos un ciclo de vida laboral muy marcado (empleo asalariado para los jóvenes, informal para los adultos): durante su fase asalariada temprana perciben ingresos relativamente mejores y, salvo en los períodos de desempleo, cotizan más al sistema pensional; durante su fase madura como informales perciben ingresos más bajos y dejan de cotizar. Ello, junto con la bajísima calidad del empleo rural, explica la baja cobertura pensional. Hemos diseñado un modelo para estimar el futuro laboral y pensional de cada uno de los 167.304 individuos en edad de trabajar existentes en la muestra de la encuesta nacional de hogares del DANE del tercer trimestre de 2007. Para ello ha sido necesario calcular su supervivencia hasta los 65 años, las probabilidades anuales de transición entre asalariados, no asalariados, desempleados e inactivos, por edades simples, sexo y nivel educativo y también, con base en la información de esa encuesta de hogares, las semanas y sumas monetarias cotizadas por cada uno. Dados los resultados (solo los más educados podrán pensionarse en proporciones significativas, los menos educados no) y con el fin de elevar la cobertura para estos últimos, hemos considerado una serie de modificaciones al mercado laboral colombiano y examinado también los impactos de la pensión familiar. Los resultados, que son bastante decepcionantes (la cobertura no sube mucho ni bajo el régimen de capitalización, ni bajo el de prima media a menos que este último se deficite peligrosamente), revelan que, aunque la densidad de cotizaciones se eleva significativamente y los salarios de los obreros y empleados suben cuando se formaliza en el empleo asalariado, resultan insuficientes dados los bajísimos ingresos de los trabajadores informales; sin embargo, bajo el régimen de capitalización y excluyendo la garantía de pensión mínima, el escenario más optimista (que incluye un alza del 50% en la educación superior) mejora sustancialmente la cobertura pensional global; lo hace al garantizar a la población empleos de altos salarios y con mayores densidades de cotización. Por eso, el artículo se ocupa también finalmente de los impactos de los beneficios económicos periódicos sobre las posibilidades pensionales de la población menos educada.

Suggested Citation

  • Hugo López Castaño & Francisco Lasso Valderrama, 2012. "El mercado laboral y el problema pensional colombiano," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010026, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:010026
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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Javier Lasso V. & Cristian Camilo Frasser L., 2015. "Calidad del empleo y bienestar: un análisis con escalas de equivalencia," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 33(77), pages 117-132, June.
    2. Monica Ospina Londoño & Fabiola Saavedra-Caballero, 2013. "Social Assistance and Informality: Examining the link in Colombia," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF 010933, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modelos de ciclo de vida; seguridad social y pensiones públicas; economía laboral; tendencias demográficas.;

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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