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Ahorro y Modelos Macroeconómicos

Listed author(s):
  • Carlos Esteban Posada
  • cposadpo@banrep.gov.co

El ahorro es bajo en Colombia. Tradicionalmente lo ha sido y hoy aún más. Según las cifras de cuentas nacionales, entre 1985 y 1991 el ahorro privado equivalió, en promedio, a 13.8% del PIB. El ahorro nacional, suma de los generados por los sectores privado y público, asedió al 21% del PIB, también como promedio para esos 7 años. Entre 1992 y 1994 estas cifras se volvieron mucho más modestas. Así, se estima que en 1994 el ahorro privado pudo haber descendido a una sima, 6.2% del PIB, y que el nacional quizá debió "tocar un piso". 15% del PIB(1). Si tenemos en cuenta el bajo grado de desarrollo relativo de Colombia y comparamos esas cifras con las de los países desarrollados o en desarrollo que exhiben altos ritmos de crecimiento, como son los del extremo oriente, se hace evidente la baja propensión colombiana al ahorro. En conjunto, los siete países más desarrollados de la OCDE (EU, japón, Alemania, Francia, Reino Unido, Italia y Canadá), registraron tasas de ahorro nacional cercanas a 20.7% del producto nacional en promedio (y japón 31.1%) entre 1980 y 1987 en tanto que los del extremo oriente que están en rápido desarrollo como Corea del Sur, Malasia, Singapur y Tailandia han llegado a las cumbres de la austeridad: entre 30 y 35% del producto(2). Sólo cuando se compara la tasa de ahorro colombiana con las de las principales economías latinoamericanas se deduce que la eventual insuficiencia de ahorro parece un rasgo típico de la región; al menos así lo fue en los años 80. En efecto, para el conjunto de las seis principales economías de América Latina (Brasil, México, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile y Colombia) la tasa de ahorro privado apenas ascendió a 12.6% y la de ahorro público a 3.3% del PIB entre 1980 y 1987, así que la tasa de ahorro total llegó a 15.9% mientras que la tasa de inversión ascendió a 18.9% en esos 8 años(3). Lo anterior es preocupante. Es bien sabido que una insuficiencia de ahorro es un factor importante de freno al avance económico de l

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 035.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:035
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