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Determinantes de la Tasa de Ahorro: Una Perspectiva Internacional

  • Martha Misas

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

Existe una preocupación generalizada entre los economistas y los funcionarios de la política económica en el campo internacional acerca de la eventual insuficiencia del ahorro con respecto a las necesidades de un crecimiento económico alto y sostenido(2). En el caso colombiano la preocupación ha conducido a debatir el tema por parte de sus autoridades monetarias(3). Esa preocupación fue la fuente de nuestro interés por examinar el tema de los determinantes de la tasa de ahorro global (la relación entre el ahorro y el producto globales) en una perspectiva internacional. En las siguientes páginas se presentarán los resultados del examen. El análisis se concentró en varias series estadísticas de frecuencia anual del período 1984-1993 de una muestra de 26 países tanto desarrollados como en desarrollo, incluído Colombia. Las cifras pertenecen a la base de datos del Fondo Monetario Internacional(4). El método seguido corresponde, en términos generales, a lo que se denomina estudio de panel: combinación de un análisis de series de tiempo con otro de corte transversal. Aunque el método se puede resumir en los términos anteriores, cabe anotar que tiene dos importantes elementos que no son comunes en trabajos de panel. En primer lugar las estimaciones econométricas no se realizaron para un único grupo, el conformado por el conjunto total de los 26 países; por el contrario, se establecieron diversas clasificaciones de países y se aplicó el mismo modelo econométrico a cada subgrupo. Las diversas clasificaciones se lograron mediante el procedimiento denominado "análisis de cluster"(5) para obviar las arbitrariedades resultantes de comparar economías excesivamente heterogéneas y, e n particular, establecer la robustez de los resultados econométricos frente al cambio de cada muestra o subgrupo específico. En segundo lugar, el modelo econométrico fue escogido entre diferentes alternativas diseñadas para estudio de panel que permiten, a priori, tener en cuenta la posibilid

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 068.

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  1. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1995. "Saving Behavior in Low and Middle-Income Developing Countries; A Comparison," IMF Working Papers 95/3, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Ghosh, Atish R & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1995. "The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(2), pages 305-33, May.
  3. Angus Deaton, 1989. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," NBER Working Papers 3196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Attanasio, Orazio P & Browning, Martin, 1995. "Consumption over the Life Cycle and over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1118-37, December.
  5. Juan Carlos Echeverry G., 1996. "Short Run Savings Fluctuations And Export Shocks.Theory And Evidence For Latin-America," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003498, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  6. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Poterba, James M. (ed.), 1994. "Public Policies and Household Saving," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226676180, June.
  8. Modigliani, Franco, 1985. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift and the Wealth of Nations," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1985-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
  9. Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Government Spending and Private Consumption: Some International Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 9-22, February.
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks," MPRA Paper 13716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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