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Corporate bond pricing in the AI era

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Albori

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Andrea Zaghini

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We study how the emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) affected corporate bond pricing. Using bond-level issuance data for U.S. non-financial corporations and a difference-in-differences design centered on the launch of ChatGPT, we examine whether debt investors differentiate firms according to their position in the AI value chain. We find that hyperscalers experienced a significant decline in borrowing costs relative to comparable issuers, while software firms faced less favorable financing conditions. The results suggest that credit markets rapidly incorporated expectations regarding the distribution of gains and losses from generative AI. More broadly, the evidence indicates that technological shocks affect not only firm valuations but also the cost of external finance, thereby influencing the allocation of capital across firms during periods of technological transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Albori & Andrea Zaghini, 2026. "Corporate bond pricing in the AI era," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 1057, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_1057_26
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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2026-1057/QEF_1057_26.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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