IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/wpaper/1415.html

Household debt and uncertainty: Private consumption after the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Ángel Estrada

    (Banco de España)

  • Eva Valdeolivas

    (Banco de España)

  • Javier Vallés

    (Banco de España)

  • Daniel Garrote

    (Harvard Kennedy School)

Abstract

Household debt in many advanced economies has increased significantly since the 1980s and accelerated in the years prior to the Great Recession, resulting in an aggregate reduction of saving rates in the developed economies. Some of those economies are now deleveraging, which may be affecting their recovery. We try to disentangle how these financial developments influence private consumption in a panel of OECD countries, after controlling for the traditional determinants (income, net financial and non-financial wealth, and interest rates). Consistent with the changes in the distribution of financial constraints, we find that aggregate consumption is also driven by the dynamics of housing debt accumulation and deleveraging. Precautionary savings, due to labour income uncertainty, have also influenced household decisions especially, during the 2007-2009 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Ángel Estrada & Eva Valdeolivas & Javier Vallés & Daniel Garrote, 2014. "Household debt and uncertainty: Private consumption after the Great Recession," Working Papers 1415, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1415
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/14/Fich/dt1415e.pdf
    File Function: First version, July 2014
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas Bloom, 2014. "Fluctuations in Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 153-176, Spring.
    2. Daniel Aaronson & Sumit Agarwal & Eric French, 2012. "The Spending and Debt Response to Minimum Wage Hikes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3111-3139, December.
    3. Janine Aron & John V. Duca & John N. Muellbauer & Keiko Murata & Anthony Murphy, 2010. "Credit, housing collateral and consumption: evidence from the UK, Japan and the US," Working Papers 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Brindusa Anghel & Sara de la Rica & Aitor Lacuesta, 2013. "Employment polarisation in Spain over the course of the 1997-2012 cycle," Working Papers 1321, Banco de España.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alba Lugilde & Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2018. "Precautionary saving in Spain during the great recession: evidence from a panel of uncertainty indicators," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 1151-1179, December.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Maria Malmierca, 2021. "Persistence in the private debt-t -GDP ratio: evidence from 43 OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(43), pages 5018-5027, September.
    3. de Bondt, Gabe & Gieseck, Arne & Herrero, Pablo & Zekaite, Zivile, 2019. "Disaggregate income and wealth effects in the largest euro area countries," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Arnon Barak, 2017. "The private consumption function in Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2017.04b, Bank of Israel.
    5. Arnon Barak, 2018. "The Private Consumption Function In Israel," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 16(1), pages 65-103.
    6. Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores & Ruiz, Freddy, 2021. "Does Uncertainty Affect Saving Decisions of Colombian Households? Evidence on Precautionary Saving," MPRA Paper 106771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Patience Nkala & Asrat Tsegaye, 2017. "The Relationship between Household Debt and Consumption Spending in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(2), pages 243-257.
    8. Gabe Jacob de Bondt & Arne Gieseck & Zivile Zekaite, 2020. "Thick modelling income and wealth effects: a forecast application to euro area private consumption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 257-286, January.
    9. Dimitrios Sideris & Georgia Pavlou, 2021. "Disaggregate income and wealth effects on private consumption in Greece," Working Papers 293, Bank of Greece.
    10. De Andrés Mosquera, Andrés, 2017. "Los determinantes a largo plazo y su contribución a la tasa de ahorro de los hogares españoles en el período 1985-2016 || Long-term determinants and its contribution to Spanish household saving rate during the period 1985-2016," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 24(1), pages 292-339, Diciembre.
    11. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Dées, Stéphane & Andersson, Malin & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Forster, Katrin & Zorell, Nico & Audoly, Richard & Buelens, Christian & Compeyron, Guillaume & Ferrando, Annali, 2016. "Savings and investment behaviour in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 167, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2017. "The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1059-1103, April.
    2. Benchimol, Jonathan & El-Shagi, Makram & Saadon, Yossi, 2022. "Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 205-226.
    3. Zhao, Yan & Su, Kun, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate financialization: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Ivana Lolić & Petar Sorić & Marija Logarušić, 2022. "Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Meets Ensemble Learning," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 401-437, August.
    5. Altig, Dave & Baker, Scott & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Davis, Steven J. & Leather, Julia & Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Mizen, Paul & Parker, Nicholas &, 2020. "Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    6. Binge, Laurie H. & Boshoff, Willem H., 2020. "Economic uncertainty in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 113-131.
    7. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Massimiliano Marcellino & Nico Petz, 2025. "Gaussian Process Vector Autoregressions and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 27-43, January.
    8. Yoshito Funashima, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and unconventional monetary policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(3), pages 278-292, June.
    9. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations and economic policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 148-162.
    10. Castro-Iragorri, Carlos & Gómez, Fabio & Quiceno, Nancy, 2024. "Worst-case higher moment risk measure: Addressing distributional shifts and procyclicality," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. Stolbov, M., 2012. "Financial Accelerator Theory and the Russian Mortgage Market," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 79-98.
    12. Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017. "Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 9-35.
    13. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
    14. Savignac, Frédérique & Arrondel, Luc & Lamarche, Pierre, 2015. "Wealth effects on consumption across the wealth distribution: empirical evidence," Working Paper Series 1817, European Central Bank.
    15. Pawel Smietanka & Nicholas Bloom & Paul Mizen, 2018. "Business investment, cash holding and uncertainty since the Great Financial Crisis," Bank of England working papers 753, Bank of England.
    16. Duffy, David & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2015. "Macroprudential Policy in a Recovering Market: Too Much too Soon?," Papers WP500, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Freund, L. B & Rendahl, P., 2020. "Unexpected Effects: Uncertainty, Unemployment, and Inflation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2035, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    18. Danilo Bolano & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "Union formation under conditions of uncertainty: The objective and subjective sides of employment uncertainty," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(5), pages 141-186.
    19. Philip Barrett & Mariia Bondar & Sophia Chen & Mali Chivakul & Deniz Igan, 2024. "Pricing protest: the response of financial markets to social unrest," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1419-1450.
    20. Lassaâd Mbarek & Hardik A. Marfatia & Sonja Juko, 2018. "Time-varying Response of Treasury Yields to Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Tunisian Bond Market," Working Papers 1243, Economic Research Forum, revised 23 Oct 2018.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1415. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ángel Rodríguez. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdegves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.