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Some Financial Stability Indicators for Brazil


  • Adriana Soares Sales
  • Waldyr D. Areosa
  • Marta B. M. Areosa


We present a methodology to construct a Broad Financial Stability Indicator (FSIB) based on unobserved common factors and a Specific Financial Stability Indicator (FSIS) for the Brazilian economy combining observed credit, debt and exchange rate markets indicators. Rather than advocate a particular numerical indicator of financial stability, our main goal is methodological. Our indicators, calculated in sample and ex-post, seem to capture three periods of considerably high financial instability in Brazil: (i) the 1998/1999 speculative attack on the Real, (ii) the government transition of 2002/2003 and (iii) the intensification of the 2008/2009 subprime financial crisis triggered by the collapse of the Lehman Brothers. We also propose an alternative methodology that decomposes business cycle fluctuations in two components -- a Financial Factor (FF) and a Real Factor (RF) -- which are identified from co-movements of financial and non-financial variables. The results are similar to the ones pointed out by our FSIB and FSIS measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Adriana Soares Sales & Waldyr D. Areosa & Marta B. M. Areosa, 2012. "Some Financial Stability Indicators for Brazil," Working Papers Series 287, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:287

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hahm, Joon-Ho & Mishkin, Frederic S. & Shin, Hyun Song & Shin, Kwanho, 2011. "Macroprudential policies in open emerging economies," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 63-114.
    2. Carlos Montoro & Ramon Moreno, 2011. "The use of reserve requirements as a policy instrument in Latin America," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    3. Jan Willem van den End, 2006. "Indicator and boundaries of financial stability," DNB Working Papers 097, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2011. "Monitoring financial stability: a financial conditions index approach," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 22-43.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Martins, 2012. "Local Market Structure and Bank Competition: evidence from the Brazilian auto loan market," Working Papers Series 299, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva & Adriana Soares Sales & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2013. "Financial stability in Brazil," Chapters,in: Stability of the Financial System, chapter 4 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. A. Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2012. "Financial Conditions Indices for the Turkish Economy," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1231, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Waldyr Dutra Areosa, 2016. "Financial Conditions Indicators for Brazil," Working Papers Series 435, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2015. "Turkiye icin Finansal Kosullar Endeksi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 15(3), pages 41-73.
    6. Petr Jakubík & Tomáš Slacík, 2013. "Measuring Financial (In)Stability in Emerging Europe: A New Index-Based Approach," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 25, pages 102-117.
    7. Canale, Rosaria Rita & de Grauwe, Paul & Foresti, Pasquale & Napolitano, Oreste, 2018. "Is there a trade-off between free capital mobility, financial stability and fiscal policy flexibility in the EMU?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86629, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2013. "Complex networks and banking systems supervision," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4429-4434.
    9. Modenesi, Rui Lyrio & Modenesi, André de Melo & Martins, Norberto Montani & Fontaine, Patrick, 2015. "Restructuring the Economic Policy Framework in Brazil: Genuine or Gattopardo change?," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 17.

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