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Financial Stability in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Luiz A. Pereira da Silva
  • Adriana Soares Sales
  • Wagner Piazza Gaglianone

Abstract

This paper proposes a working definition for “financial stability” related to systemic risk. Systemic risk is then measured as the probability of disruption of financial services taking into account its time and cross-sectional dimensions and several risk factors. The paper discusses the implications of this definition for Brazil in the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis. A comparison with the United States and the Euro zone is provided. In addition, systemic risk in the Brazilian credit market is investigated given its crucial role as main financial stability driver. Finally, synthetic indicators of systemic risk are used to monitor financial stability. The link between systemic risk and synthetic indicators and/or well-correlated proxies (e.g., a credit-to-GDP gap) allows the calculation of the probability of disruption of the financial system across its time dimension. Therefore, if a Financial Stability Committee and/or the prudential regulator define its tolerance level for “financial stability” as a threshold measured by this probability of disruption, it might have the capability of determining the precise moment when it should strengthen its set of adequate macroprudential responses and policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Luiz A. Pereira da Silva & Adriana Soares Sales & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2012. "Financial Stability in Brazil," Working Papers Series 289, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:289
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    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps289.pdf
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva & Adriana Soares Sales & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2013. "Financial stability in Brazil," Chapters,in: Stability of the Financial System, chapter 4 Edward Elgar Publishing.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Adriana Soares Sales & Waldyr D. Areosa & Marta B. M. Areosa, 2012. "Some Financial Stability Indicators for Brazil," Working Papers Series 287, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. repec:sbe:breart:v:35:y:2015:i:2:a:57573 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Drehmann, Mathias & Tarashev, Nikola, 2013. "Measuring the systemic importance of interconnected banks," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 586-607.
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    9. López-Espinosa, Germán & Moreno, Antonio & Rubia, Antonio & Valderrama, Laura, 2015. "Systemic risk and asymmetric responses in the financial industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 471-485.
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    11. Detken, Carsten & Alessi, Lucia, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
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    18. Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva & Ricardo Eyer Harris, 2012. "Sailing through the Global Financial Storm: Brazil's recent experience with monetary and macroprudential policies to lean against the financial cycle and deal with systemic risks," Working Papers Series 290, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Modenesi, Rui Lyrio & Modenesi, André de Melo & Martins, Norberto Montani & Fontaine, Patrick, 2015. "Restructuring the Economic Policy Framework in Brazil: Genuine or Gattopardo change?," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 17.
    3. Fabia A. de Carvalho & Marcos R. de Castro, 2015. "Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Interaction: a Brazilian perspective," Working Papers Series 405, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Bruno Martins, 2012. "Local Market Structure and Bank Competition: evidence from the Brazilian auto loan market," Working Papers Series 299, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2013. "Complex networks and banking systems supervision," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4429-4434.
    6. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Waldyr Dutra Areosa, 2016. "Financial Conditions Indicators for Brazil," Working Papers Series 435, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Brazil; Technical Note on Macroprudential Policy Framework," IMF Staff Country Reports 13/148, International Monetary Fund.

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