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Financial Stability in Brazil

  • Luiz A. Pereira da Silva
  • Adriana Soares Sales
  • Wagner Piazza Gaglianone

This paper proposes a working definition for “financial stability” related to systemic risk. Systemic risk is then measured as the probability of disruption of financial services taking into account its time and cross-sectional dimensions and several risk factors. The paper discusses the implications of this definition for Brazil in the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis. A comparison with the United States and the Euro zone is provided. In addition, systemic risk in the Brazilian credit market is investigated given its crucial role as main financial stability driver. Finally, synthetic indicators of systemic risk are used to monitor financial stability. The link between systemic risk and synthetic indicators and/or well-correlated proxies (e.g., a credit-to-GDP gap) allows the calculation of the probability of disruption of the financial system across its time dimension. Therefore, if a Financial Stability Committee and/or the prudential regulator define its tolerance level for “financial stability” as a threshold measured by this probability of disruption, it might have the capability of determining the precise moment when it should strengthen its set of adequate macroprudential responses and policies.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps289.pdf
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Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 289.

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Date of creation: Aug 2012
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:289
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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  1. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
  2. Gianni De Nicoló & Giovanni Favara & Lev Ratnovski, 2012. "Externalities and Macroprudential Policy," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/05, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Adriana Soares Sales & Waldyr D. Areosa & Marta B. M. Areosa, 2012. "Some Financial Stability Indicators for Brazil," Working Papers Series 287, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Koray Alper & Luiz Pereira da Silva, 2009. "Capital Requirements and Business Cycles with Credit Market Imperfections," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 124, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  5. Co-Pierre Georg, 2010. "The effect of the interbank network structure on contagion and financial stability," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 12-2010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  6. Marcos R. de Castro & Solange N. Gouvea & André Minella & Rafael C. dos Santos & Nelson F. Souza-Sobrinho, 2011. "SAMBA: Stochastic Analytical Model with a Bayesian Approach," Working Papers Series 239, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Anatomy of a Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 3934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ricardo Schechtman & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2011. "Macro Stress Testing of Credit Risk Focused on the Tails," Working Papers Series 241, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  9. Nikola Tarashev & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Measuring the systemic importance of interconnected banks," BIS Working Papers 342, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Sheri Markose & Simone Giansante & Mateusz Gatkowski & Ali Rais Shaghaghi, 2010. "Too Interconnected To Fail: Financial Contagion and Systemic Risk in Network Model of CDS and Other Credit Enhancement Obligations of US Banks," Economics Discussion Papers 683, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  11. Germán López-Espinosa & Antonio Rubia & Laura Valderrama & Antonio Moreno, 2012. "Systemic Risk and Asymmetric Responses in the Financial Industry," IMF Working Papers 12/152, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
  13. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
  14. William A. Allen & Geoffrey Wood, 2005. "Defining and Achieving Financial Stability," FMG Special Papers sp160, Financial Markets Group.
  15. Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva & Ricardo Eyer Harris, 2012. "Sailing through the Global Financial Storm: Brazil's recent experience with monetary and macroprudential policies to lean against the financial cycle and deal with systemic risks," Working Papers Series 290, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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