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Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Value Chains

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  • Yuko Imura

Abstract

This paper provides a systematic, quantitative analysis of the short-run and long-run effects of various trade-restricting policies in the presence of global value chains and multinational production. Using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous firm entry and exit in both exporting and multinational production, I compare the effects of (i) tariffs on final-good imports, (ii) tariffs on intermediate-input imports, and (iii) barriers to accessing foreign markets. I show that, in the long run, all three policies lead to a recession in both countries, but the relative effects on the GDP of the two countries vary across policies. At the firm level, less productive exporters exit from the destination market while the most productive few find it profitable to locate production in the foreign country as multinationals, thereby partially recovering the loss from exporting. In the short run, the dynamics differ across policies and from their long-run outcomes. Final-good tariffs and market-access barriers lead to a temporary production boom in the policy-imposing country, while intermediate-input tariffs result in an immediate recession in both countries. The latter also discourages multinational operation over the short run when the input tariffs dominate the declining costs of labor and capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuko Imura, 2019. "Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Value Chains," Staff Working Papers 19-19, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:19-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wu, Tommy T., 2015. "Firm heterogeneity, trade, multinationals, and growth: A quantitative evaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 359-375.
    2. Christopher Erceg & Andrea Prestipino & Andrea Raffo, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effect of Trade Policy," 2018 Meeting Papers 221, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Ivan DESEATNICOV & Konstantin KUCHERYAVYY, 2017. "Exports and FDI Entry Decision: Evidence from Japanese foreign-affiliated firms," Discussion papers 17036, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Davide Furceri & Swarnali A. Hannan & Jonathan D. Ostry & Andrew K. Rose, 2018. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs," NBER Working Papers 25402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ramondo, Natalia, 2014. "A quantitative approach to multinational production," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 108-122.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Value Chains
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2019-06-05 19:34:26

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Firm dynamics; International topics; Trade Integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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