IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/06-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are Currency Crises Low-State Equilibria? An Empirical, Three-Interest-Rate Model

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher M. Cornell
  • Raphael H. Solomon

Abstract

Suppose that the dynamics of the macroeconomy were given by (partly) random fluctuations between two equilibria: "good" and "bad." One would interpret currency crises (or recessions) as a shift from the good equilibrium to the bad. In this paper, the authors specify a dynamic investment-savings-aggregate-supply (IS-AS) model, determine its closed-form solution, and examine numerically its comparative statics. The authors estimate the model via maximum likelihood, using data for Argentina, Canada, and Turkey. Since the data show no support for the multiple-equilibrium explanation of fluctuations, the authors cast doubt on the third-generation models of currency crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher M. Cornell & Raphael H. Solomon, 2006. "Are Currency Crises Low-State Equilibria? An Empirical, Three-Interest-Rate Model," Staff Working Papers 06-5, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:06-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp06-5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cooper, Russell & Corbae, Dean, 2002. "Financial Collapse: A Lesson from the Great Depression," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 159-190, December.
    2. Dagsvik, John & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1994. "Was the Great Depression a low-level equilibrium?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 1711-1729, December.
    3. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    4. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-536, June.
    6. Claudio Borio & William R. White, 2003. "Whither monetary and financial stability : the implications of evolving policy regimes," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 131-211.
    7. Alberto Bisin & Giorgio Topa & Thierry Verdier, 2004. "Religious Intermarriage and Socialization in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 615-664, June.
    8. Cornell, Christopher M., 2003. "Target zones, reserve crises, and inverted S-curves," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 313-323, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty and monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:06-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.