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Fiscal Devaluations in EMU

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  • José Emilio Boscá
  • Rafael Domenech
  • Javier Ferri

Abstract

We use a small open economy general equilibrium model to analyse the effects of a fiscal devaluation in EMU. The model has been calibrated for the Spanish economy, that is a good example of the advantages of a change in the tax mix, given that its tax system shows a positive bias in the ratio of social security contributions over consumption taxes. The preliminary empirical evidence for European countries shows that this bias was negatively correlated with the current account balance in the expansionary years previous to the 2009 crisis, where many EMU members accumulated large external imbalances. Our simulations results point to positive significant effects of a fiscal devaluation on GDP and employment similar to the ones that could be obtained with a exchange rate devaluation. However, although the effects in terms of GDP and employment are similar, the composition effects of fiscal and nominal devaluations are not alike. In both cases, there is an improvement in net exports, but the effects on domestic and external demand are quite different.

Suggested Citation

  • José Emilio Boscá & Rafael Domenech & Javier Ferri, 2012. "Fiscal Devaluations in EMU," Working Papers 1211, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1211
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: A simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2543-2583, August.
    2. Cogan, John F. & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik H., 2013. "Fiscal consolidation strategy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 404-421.
    3. Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison & Zhenhua Zhu, 2004. "A Structural Small Open-Economy Model for Canada," Staff Working Papers 04-4, Bank of Canada.
    4. von Thadden, Leopold & Lipińska, Anna, 2009. "Monetary and fiscal policy aspects of indirect tax changes in a monetary union," Working Paper Series 1097, European Central Bank.
    5. KC Fung & Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Mario Nigrinis Ospina, 2013. "Latin American Commodity Export Concentration: Is There a China Effect?," Working Papers 1306, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    6. Javier Alonso & David Tuesta & Jasmina Bjeletic & Carlos Herrera & Soledad Hormazabal & Ivonne Ordonez & Carolina Romero, 2009. "Proyecciones del impacto de los fondos de pensiones en la inversion en infraestructura y el crecimiento en Latinoamerica," Working Papers 0921, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    7. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    8. Orsetta Causa, 2008. "Explaining Differences in Hours Worked among OECD Countries: An empirical analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 596, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:eecrev:v:98:y:2017:i:c:p:126-143 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Philipp Engler & Giovanni Ganelli & Juha Tervala & Simon Voigts, 2017. "Fiscal Devaluation in a Monetary Union," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(2), pages 241-272, June.
    3. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien & Ma, Xiaofei, 2017. "Competitive tax reforms in a monetary union with endogenous entry and tradability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 126-143.
    4. Mónica Correa Lopez & Rafael Domenech, 2012. "The Internationalisation of Spanish Firms," Working Papers 1230, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    5. Vukšić, Goran & Holzner, Mario, 2016. "Trade and fiscal imbalances in Southeastern Europe: Can fiscal devaluation help?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 568-581.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tax mix; fiscal devaluation; nominal devaluation;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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