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The Impact of Structural Pension Reforms on the Macroeconomic Performance: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Angeliki Theophilopoulou

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

Abstract

Whether pension reforms lead to an improvement in macroeconomic performance is a controversial question. Some countries, which have implemented reforms, claim better economic performance while in others a positive result has yet to be seen. This paper explores two aspects of this issue further: Firstly, we provide a comprehensive investigation of the impact of pension reforms on output, capital stock and consumption. Secondly, we attempt to uncover the factors which lead to cross country heterogeneity in the impact of reform. Our results suggest that pension reform led to an improvement in macroeconomic performance. However, there is also evidence to suggest that this improvement was more pronounced in countries with lower public debt, lower age dependency ratio, more developed financial markets and a higher rate of privatisations.

Suggested Citation

  • Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2008. "The Impact of Structural Pension Reforms on the Macroeconomic Performance: An Empirical Analysis," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0806, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:0806
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    2. Barrell, Ray & Byrne, Joseph P. & Dury, Karen, 2003. "The implications of diversity in consumption behaviour for the choice of monetary policy rules in Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 275-299, March.
    3. Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1998. "The Transition Path in Privatizing Social Security," NBER Chapters,in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 215-264 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Robert Holzmann, 1997. "Pension Reform, Financial Market Development, and Economic Growth: Preliminary Evidence from Chile," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 149-178, June.
    5. Schwarz, Anita M. & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 1999. "Taking stock of pension reforms around the world," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 20533, The World Bank.
    6. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    7. Peter Diamond, 2004. "Social Security," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 1-24, March.
    8. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1995. "Pension reform and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1471, The World Bank.
    9. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
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