IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332350.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Population Aging in the Interdependent Global Economy: A Computational Approach with an Overlapping Generations Model of Global Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Oyamada, Kazuhiko
  • Itakura, Ken

Abstract

Since the latter half of 1990s, it has been discussed that many developing countries are going to face serious population aging problem while these economies are still underdeveloped and not adequately prepared against aging yet in terms of institutional reform such as social security. As the global interdependence of national economies has been deepened, a socio-economic problem in one country comes to have significant influences on many other economies and its effect might spillover around the world. The main objectives of our study are to analyze: (1) patterns of interregional spillovers of demographic change; (2) effects of pension reforms in one country on the other countries; and (3) role of foreign aid to the developing region where fund for investment is insufficient compared to their labor supply because of the immature capital market, with special emphasis on trade and capital flows among regions. This study presents a basic analysis on interregional cooperative framework which may offset negative effects of population aging and make it possible to take advantage of the so-called "population dividends" that are derived from the population structure with a large size of working population relative to the number of dependent population. A country under faster aging process would become a capital exporter to other countries at relatively moderate aging stage. As capital export would undermine assets over the long run, it would be possible for the faster aging country to eventually become a capital importer. Using a numerical Overlapping Generations (OLG) model that includes five regions with different demographic structure (high-income countries, Japan, mainland China, other Asia, and other low-income countries), we conduct simulation analysis to examine effects of (a) pension reforms, such as increase of contribution rate, decrease of replacement rate, and raising of pension age, respectively implemented in high-income countries and/or Japan; (b) f
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Oyamada, Kazuhiko & Itakura, Ken, 2013. "Population Aging in the Interdependent Global Economy: A Computational Approach with an Overlapping Generations Model of Global Trade," Conference papers 332350, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332350
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332350/files/6292.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michel Juillard & Jacky Fayolle & Michel Aglietta & Jean Chateau & Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé & Jacques Le Cacheux, 2001. "Macroeconomic consequences of pension reforms in Europe: an investigation with the INGENUE world model," Working Papers hal-03416868, HAL.
    2. Balistreri, Edward J. & Hillberry, Russell H. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2011. "Structural estimation and solution of international trade models with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 95-108, March.
    3. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    4. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - The Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," NBER Working Papers 10096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Oyamada, Kazuhiko, 2013. "Parameterization of applied general equilibrium models with flexible trade specifications based on the Armington, Krugman, and Melitz models," IDE Discussion Papers 380, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4441 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    8. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    9. Robin Brooks, 2003. "Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(2), pages 1-3.
    10. Michel Aglietta & Vladimir Borgy & Jean Chateau & Michel Juillard & Jacques Le Cacheux & Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2005. "Scenario for Global Aging - An Investigation with the INGENUE 2 World Model," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01072181, HAL.
    11. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    12. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/4441 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Michel Juillard & Jacky Fayolle & Michel Aglietta & Jean Chateau & Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé & Jacques Le Cacheux, 2001. "Macroeconomic consequences of pension reforms in Europe: an investigation with the INGENUE world model," Working Papers hal-03416868, HAL.
    14. Mérette Marcel & Georges Patrick, 2010. "Demographic Changes and the Gains from Globalisation: An Analysis of Ageing, Capital Flows, and International Trade," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-39, October.
    15. Michael Feroli, 2003. "Capital flows among the G-7 nations: a demographic perspective," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    2. Itakura, Ken & Oyamada, Kazuhiko, 2014. "Examining Trade Response of Armington-Krugman-Melitz Encompassing Module in a CGE Model," Conference papers 332513, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    4. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January.
    5. Oyamada, Kazuhiko, 2013. "Parameterization of applied general equilibrium models with flexible trade specifications based on the Armington, Krugman, and Melitz models," IDE Discussion Papers 380, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    6. Luca, MARCHIORI, 2007. "ChinAfrica : How can the Sino-African cooperation be beneficial for Africa ?," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007014, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    7. Mr. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 2006/009, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    9. Zeynep Akgul & Nelson B Villoria & Thomas W Hertel, 2016. "GTAP-HET: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity into the GTAP Model," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 111-180, June.
    10. Oyamada, Kazuhiko, 2014. "Neutrality in the choice of number of firms or level of fixed costs in calibrating an Armington-Krugman-Melitz encompassing module for applied general equilibrium models," IDE Discussion Papers 465, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    11. Oyamada, Kazuhiko, 2015. "Behavioral characteristics of applied general equilibrium models with an Armington-Krugman-Melitz encompassing module," IDE Discussion Papers 525, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    12. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    13. Oyamada, Kazuhiko, 2014. "Behavioral Characteristics of Applied General Equilibrium Models with an Armington-Krugman-Melitz Encompassing Module," Conference papers 332442, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Ken Itakura & Kazuhiko Oyamada, 2015. "Examining Trade Response of Armington-Krugman-Melitz Encompassing Module in a CGE Model," EcoMod2015 8695, EcoMod.
    15. Balistreri, Edward J. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2013. "Computing General Equilibrium Theories of Monopolistic Competition and Heterogeneous Firms," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1513-1570, Elsevier.
    16. Marchiori, Luca, 2011. "Demographic trends and international capital flows in an integrated world," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2100-2120, September.
    17. de la Croix, David & Docquier, Frederic & Liegeois, Philippe, 2007. "Income growth in the 21st century: Forecasts with an overlapping generations model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 621-635.
    18. Ardelean, Adina & Lugovskyy, Volodymyr, 2010. "Domestic productivity and variety gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 280-291, March.
    19. Parrado, Ramiro & De Cian, Enrica, 2014. "Technology spillovers embodied in international trade: Intertemporal, regional and sectoral effects in a global CGE framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 76-89.
    20. Fally, Thibault, 2015. "Structural gravity and fixed effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 76-85.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332350. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.