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Scenario for Global Aging - An Investigation with the INGENUE 2 World Model

Author

Listed:
  • Michel Aglietta

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Vladimir Borgy

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Jean Chateau

    (UP1 UFR27 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UFR Mathématiques & Informatique - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Michel Juillard
  • Jacques Le Cacheux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Gilles Le Garrec

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Vincent Touzé

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

This paper explores the consequences of pension reforms in Western Europe in a world economy setting. Whereas various economic and social consequences of ageing have been investigated in OECD countries, very few analyses have explicitly taken the worldwide aspect of the problem into account. In order to do so, we rely on the new version of the INGENUE model. This applied, international, overlapping-generations, general-equilibrium model of the world economy has been built noticeably to analyze the international capital flows and growth dynamics induced by differential ageing of the various regions of the world. After a description of the major features of the baseline scenario of the model for the world economy over the next 50 years, we explore the domestic and international macroeconomic consequences of two scenarios of pension reforms in Western Europe as well as their intergenerational distributional effects. We compare these scenarios with a specific migration scenario, which is allowed by the new features of the INGENUE 2 model.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Aglietta & Vladimir Borgy & Jean Chateau & Michel Juillard & Jacques Le Cacheux & Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2005. "Scenario for Global Aging - An Investigation with the INGENUE 2 World Model," Working Papers hal-01072181, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01072181
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01072181
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    3. Blinder, Alan S, 1975. "Distribution Effects and the Aggregate Consumption Function," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(3), pages 447-475, June.
    4. Equipe INGENUE, 2002. "Incidences économiques, politiques et redistributives des réformes des retraites en Europe. Une exploration avec le modèle INGENUE," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 53(4), pages 787-808.
    5. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oyamada, Kazuhiko & Itakura, Ken, 2013. "Population Aging in the Interdependent Global Economy: A Computational Approach with an Overlapping Generations Model of Global Trade," Conference papers 332350, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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