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Scenario for Global Aging - An Investigation with the INGENUE 2 World Model

Listed author(s):
  • Michel Aglietta

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Vladimir Borgy

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Jean Chateau

    (UFR Mathématique et informatique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Michel Juillard

    (BCL - Bases, Corpus, Langage (UMR 6039 - UNS / CNRS) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis)

  • Jacques Le Cacheux

    ()

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Gilles Le Garrec

    ()

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Vincent Touze

    ()

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

This paper explores the consequences of pension reforms in Western Europe in a world economy setting. Whereas various economic and social consequences of ageing have been investigated in OECD countries, very few analyses have explicitly taken the worldwide aspect of the problem into account. In order to do so, we rely on the new version of the INGENUE model. This applied, international, overlapping-generations, general-equilibrium model of the world economy has been built noticeably to analyze the international capital flows and growth dynamics induced by differential ageing of the various regions of the world. After a description of the major features of the baseline scenario of the model for the world economy over the next 50 years, we explore the domestic and international macroeconomic consequences of two scenarios of pension reforms in Western Europe as well as their intergenerational distributional effects. We compare these scenarios with a specific migration scenario, which is allowed by the new features of the INGENUE 2 model.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-01072181.

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Date of creation: Jul 2005
Publication status: Published in 2005
Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01072181
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01072181
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  1. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
  2. Blinder, Alan S, 1975. "Distribution Effects and the Aggregate Consumption Function," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(3), pages 447-475, June.
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