IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecr/col027/4744.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Latin America and the Caribbean: projections 2006-2007

Author

Listed:
  • -

Abstract

This document was prepared by the Economic Projections Centre, under the supervision of Hubert Escaith, Director of the Statistics and Economic Projections Division of the ECLAC. André Hofman, Chief of the Economic Projections Centre (ECP), was in charge of technical coordination and for conducting the study. The assistance of the national and subregional offices and of the ECLAC Economic Development Division was much appreciated. The views expressed in this document, which have not been formally edited, are the sole responsibility of the working group and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Organization. Starting this year, the Centre for Economic Projections at ECLAC's Statistics and Economic Projections Division, publishes the Atlas of Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean (Last update: July 2006). This new product is an interactive graphical version of the main Economic Projections Document, which will provide immediate and user-friendly access to the individual growth projections for the countries in the region. Summary: The gross domestic product (GDP) of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 4.6% in 2006, up slightly from 2005. This could lead to an increase of more than 3% in per capita GDP, stemming from continuing strong domestic demand, as well as from an external sector that will continue to be driven by lively world trade, spearheaded by the Asian economies. The region's average growth rate is expected to fall slightly in 2007 by approximately half a percentage point, chiefly because Argentina and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela will have completed their recovery. The Latin American economies will grow at fairly similar rates in 2006, by between 3% and 6%, with the exception of Argentina and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, which will grow by more than 6%. As in previous years, the Southern Cone (Argentina, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay) and the Andean Community are projected to be the regions with the highest growth rates, with 6.9% and 5.7% respectively. Mexico and Central America are expected to experience lower growth than Latin America in 2006, following the trend of recent years. However, the gap is closing and the subregion is expected to grow by around 3.6%. The inflation rate for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2006 is forecast to be much the same as in 2005, in the order of 5% to 7%, owing to cost pressures associated with energy prices, that will feed into prices somewhat belatedly. In 2006, as in 2005, the current account is expected to remain in surplus, although not by as much, owing to a continuing recovery in imports associated with strong domestic demand. In the world context, in 2006 the United States' growth rate is forecast to be slightly lower than in 2005, whereas the average growth rates for Japan and Europe are expected to be higher. This will stem from slightly more restrictive macroeconomic policies in the United States, together with sustained growth in domestic demand in both China and Japan. Furthermore, the worst of the contractive effect of high oil prices on the world economy is thought to have already occurred in 2005. This year, growth in the United States and Japan is forecast to be around 3%, whereas in the European Union it will be between 1.5% and 2%. Based on these factors, there are good grounds for expecting the positive terms-of-trade trend to continue, especially for countries exporting oil or metallic minerals. In Central America and the Caribbean, where most countries are oil importers, a negative trend in trade terms is projected.

Suggested Citation

  • -, 2006. "Latin America and the Caribbean: projections 2006-2007," Estudios Estadísticos 4744, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col027:4744
    Note: Includes bibliography
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/4744
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. -, 2005. "Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2005," Balance Preliminar de las Economías de América Latina y el Caribe, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 965 edited by Eclac.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2008. "The Impact of Structural Pension Reforms on the Macroeconomic Performance: An Empirical Analysis," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0806, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    2. Cervera-Ferri, José Luis & Escaith, Hubert, 2007. "The millennium development goals: strategic implications for the Latin American and Caribbean statistical systems," Estudios Estadísticos 4749, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    3. Escaith, Hubert, 2006. "Can Latin America fly?: revising the engines of growth," Estudios Estadísticos 4747, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2016. "Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility and Stock Prices Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria, 1986-2012," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(6), pages 1-4.
    2. Czujack, Corinna & Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Ginsburgh, Victor, 1995. "On long-run price comovements between paintings and prints," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 269, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    3. Bruce Morley, 2009. "A Comparison of Two Alternative Monetary Approaches to Exchange Rate Determination over the Long-Run," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 1(2), pages 63-76, April.
    4. Bloch, Harry & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: Prospects for fuel substitution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 104-115.
    5. Gevorkyan, Arkady & Semmler, Willi, 2016. "Oil price, overleveraging and shakeout in the shale energy sector — Game changers in the oil industry," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 244-259.
    6. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Michel DIMOU & Alexandra SCHAFFAR & Zhihong CHEN & Shihe FU, 2008. "LA CROISSANCE URBAINE CHINOISE RECONSIDeReE," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 27, pages 109-131.
    8. Md.Yousuf & Raju Ahmed & Nasrin Akther Lubna & Shah Md. Sumon, 2019. "Estimating the Services Sector Impact on Economic Growth of Bangladesh: An Econometric Investigation," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 62-72, June.
    9. -, 2005. "CEPAL Review no.87," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    10. Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allan W. Gregory, 2009. "Canadian city housing prices and urban market segmentation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 1132-1149, August.
    11. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Cigdem Borke Tunali, 2020. "The Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 273-294, April.
    12. Kim, Byung Yeon, 1997. "Soviet Household Saving Function," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2-3), pages 181-203.
    13. Muellbauer, John & Sinclair, Peter & Aron, Janine & Farrell, Greg, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 8153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Zamani, Mehrzad, 2007. "Energy consumption and economic activities in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1135-1140, November.
    15. Muhammad Zia Ullah Khan & Muhammad Illyas & Muqqadas Rahman & Chaudhary Abdul Rahman, 2015. "Money Monetization and Economic Growth in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(4), pages 184-192, April.
    16. Muhammad Shafiullah & Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam, 2016. "Do Bangladesh and Sri Lanka Enjoy Export-Led Growth? A Comparison of Two Small South Asian Economies," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(1), pages 114-132, March.
    17. Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.
    18. Menzie Chinn & Louis Johnston, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," NBER Working Papers 5709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Titus O. Awokuse, 2003. "Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 126-136, February.
    20. Saaed, A.A.J., 2007. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Kuwait: 1985-2005. Evidence from Co-Integration and Error Correction Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecr:col027:4744. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Biblioteca CEPAL (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eclaccl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.