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Investigating Extreme Dependences: Concepts and Tools

Author

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  • Y. Malevergne

    (Univ. Nice and Univ. Lyon I)

  • D. Sornette

    (CNRS and Univ. Nice and UCLA)

Abstract

We investigate the relative information content of six measures of dependence between two random variables $X$ and $Y$ for large or extreme events for several models of interest for financial time series. The six measures of dependence are respectively the linear correlation $\rho^+_v$ and Spearman's rho $\rho_s(v)$ conditioned on signed exceedance of one variable above the threshold $v$, or on both variables ($\rho_u$), the linear correlation $\rho^s_v$ conditioned on absolute value exceedance (or large volatility) of one variable, the so-called asymptotic tail-dependence $\lambda$ and a probability-weighted tail dependence coefficient ${\bar \lambda}$. The models are the bivariate Gaussian distribution, the bivariate Student's distribution, and the factor model for various distributions of the factor. We offer explicit analytical formulas as well as numerical estimations for these six measures of dependence in the limit where $v$ and $u$ go to infinity. This provides a quantitative proof that conditioning on exceedance leads to conditional correlation coefficients that may be very different from the unconditional correlation and gives a straightforward mechanism for fluctuations or changes of correlations, based on fluctuations of volatility or changes of trends. Moreover, these various measures of dependence exhibit different and sometimes opposite behaviors, suggesting that, somewhat similarly to risks whose adequate characterization requires an extension beyond the restricted one-dimensional measure in terms of the variance (volatility) to include all higher order cumulants or more generally the knowledge of the full distribution, tail-dependence has also a multidimensional character.

Suggested Citation

  • Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2002. "Investigating Extreme Dependences: Concepts and Tools," Papers cond-mat/0203166, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0203166
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2003. "Testing the Gaussian copula hypothesis for financial assets dependences," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 231-250.
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    Cited by:

    1. Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2002. "Hedging Extreme Co-Movements," Papers cond-mat/0205636, arXiv.org.
    2. Leonidas Sandoval Junior & Italo De Paula Franca, 2011. "Correlation of financial markets in times of crisis," Papers 1102.1339, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2011.
    3. Leonidas Sandoval Junior & Italo De Paula Franca, 2011. "Shocks in financial markets, price expectation, and damped harmonic oscillators," Papers 1103.1992, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2011.
    4. Harry. M Kat, 2002. "The Dangers of Using Correlation to Measure Dependence," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2002-23, Henley Business School, Reading University.

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