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Correlation structure of extreme stock returns

  • Pierre Cizeau

    (Science & Finance, CFM)

  • Marc Potters

    (Science & Finance, CFM)

  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

    (Science & Finance, CFM
    CEA Saclay)

It is commonly believed that the correlations between stock returns increase in high volatility periods. We investigate how much of these correlations can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time independent correlations. Using surrogate data with the true market return as the dominant factor, we show that most of these correlations, measured by a variety of different indicators, can be accounted for. In particular, this one-factor model can explain the level and asymmetry of empirical exceedance correlations. However, more subtle effects require an extension of the one factor model, where the variance and skewness of the residuals also depend on the market return.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0006034
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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number cond-mat/0006034.

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Date of creation: Jun 2000
Date of revision: Jan 2001
Publication status: Published in Quantitative Finance 1 217-222 (2001)
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0006034
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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  1. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
  2. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, 06.
  3. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Andrew Matacz & Marc Potters, 2001. "The leverage effect in financial markets: retarded volatility and market panic," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0101120, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
  4. Fabrizio Lillo & Rosario N. Mantegna, 2000. "Symmetry alteration of ensemble return distribution in crash and rally days of financial markets," Papers cond-mat/0002438, arXiv.org.
  5. Drożdż, S & Grümmer, F & Górski, A.Z & Ruf, F & Speth, J, 2000. "Dynamics of competition between collectivity and noise in the stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 440-449.
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