IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2508.04858.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing Dynamic Connectedness in Global Supply Chain Infrastructure Portfolios: The Impact of Risk Factors and Extreme Events

Author

Listed:
  • Haibo Wang

Abstract

This paper analyses the risk factors around investing in global supply chain infrastructure: the energy market, investor sentiment, and global shipping costs. It presents portfolio strategies associated with dynamic risks. A time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model is used to study the spillover and interconnectedness of the risk factors for global supply chain infrastructure portfolios from January 5th, 2010, to June 29th, 2023, which are associated with a set of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) indexes. The effects of extreme events on risk spillovers and investment strategy are calculated and compared before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. The results of this study demonstrate that risk shocks influence the dynamic connectedness between global supply chain infrastructure portfolios and three risk factors and show the effects of extreme events on risk spillovers and investment outcomes. Portfolios with higher ESG scores exhibit stronger dynamic connectedness with other portfolios and factors. Net total directional connectedness indicates that West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI), and investor sentiment volatility index (VIX) consistently are net receivers of spillover shocks. A portfolio with a ticker GLFOX appears to be a time-varying net receiver and giver. The pairwise connectedness shows that WTI and VIX are mostly net receivers. Portfolios with tickers CSUAX, GII, and FGIAX are mostly net givers of spillover shocks. The COVID-19 outbreak changed the structure of dynamic connectedness on portfolios. The mean value of HR and HE indicates that the weights of long/short positions in investment strategy after the COVID-19 outbreak have undergone structural changes compared to the period before. The hedging ability of global supply chain infrastructure investment portfolios with higher ESG scores is superior.

Suggested Citation

  • Haibo Wang, 2025. "Assessing Dynamic Connectedness in Global Supply Chain Infrastructure Portfolios: The Impact of Risk Factors and Extreme Events," Papers 2508.04858, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2508.04858
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.04858
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pham, Linh & Nguyen, Canh Phuc, 2021. "Asymmetric tail dependence between green bonds and other asset classes," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Maroto, Andrés & Zofío, José Luis, 2016. "Accessibility gains and road transport infrastructure in Spain: A productivity approach based on the Malmquist index," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 143-152.
    3. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    4. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "International monetary policy spillovers: Evidence from a time-varying parameter vector autoregression," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Graeme Newell & Hsu Peng, 2008. "The Role of U.S. Infrastructure in Investment Portfolios," Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 21-34, January.
    6. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
    7. Dogan, Eyup & Madaleno, Mara & Taskin, Dilvin & Tzeremes, Panayiotis, 2022. "Investigating the spillovers and connectedness between green finance and renewable energy sources," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 709-722.
    8. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Gabauer, David & Dwumfour, Richard Adjei, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects among green bond, renewable energy stocks and carbon markets during COVID-19 pandemic: Implications for hedging and investments strategies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    9. repec:ocp:rpaper:pp-2110 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ron Bird & Harry Liem & Susan Thorp, 2014. "Infrastructure: Real Assets and Real Returns," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(4), pages 802-824, September.
    11. Ben Ammar, Semir & Eling, Martin, 2015. "Common risk factors of infrastructure investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 257-273.
    12. Mzoughi, Hela & Urom, Christian & Guesmi, Khaled, 2022. "Downside and upside risk spillovers between green finance and energy markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    13. Joseph B. Oyedele & Alastair Adair & Stanley McGreal, 2014. "Performance of global listed infrastructure investment in a mixed asset portfolio," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1-1, March.
    14. Tu, Qiang & Mo, Jianlei & Liu, Zhuoran & Gong, Chunxu & Fan, Ying, 2021. "Using green finance to counteract the adverse effects of COVID-19 pandemic on renewable energy investment-The case of offshore wind power in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    15. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    16. Manh Vu Le & Terukazu Suruga, 2005. "Foreign direct investment, public expenditure and economic growth: the empirical evidence for the period 1970-2001," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 45-49.
    17. Cullen S. Hendrix, 2022. "Building downstream capacity for critical minerals in Africa: Challenges and opportunities," Policy Briefs PB22-16, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    18. Urom, Christian & Mzoughi, Hela & Abid, Ilyes & Brahim, Mariem, 2021. "Green markets integration in different time scales: A regional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    19. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Cunado, Juncal & Filis, George & Gabauer, David & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2020. "Oil and asset classes implied volatilities: Investment strategies and hedging effectiveness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    20. Bianchi, Robert J. & Bornholt, Graham & Drew, Michael E. & Howard, Michael F., 2014. "Long-term U.S. infrastructure returns and portfolio selection," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 314-325.
    21. Rogerio Studart & Kevin Gallagher, 2018. "Guaranteeing sustainable infrastructure," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 155, pages 84-91.
    22. Arbués, Pelayo & Baños, José F. & Mayor, Matías, 2015. "The spatial productivity of transportation infrastructure," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 166-177.
    23. Ho Seoung Na, 2023. "Analysis of mutual relationships between investments made by content providers and network operators using the VAR model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 58-71, January.
    24. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    25. Sturm, Jan Egbert & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Is public expenditure really productive?: New evidence for the USA and The Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 60-72, January.
    26. Jiang, Xiushan & He, Xiang & Zhang, Lei & Qin, Huanhuan & Shao, Fengru, 2017. "Multimodal transportation infrastructure investment and regional economic development: A structural equation modeling empirical analysis in China from 1986 to 2011," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 43-52.
    27. Álvarez, Inmaculada C. & Barbero, Javier & Zofío, José L., 2016. "A spatial autoregressive panel model to analyze road network spillovers on production," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 83-92.
    28. Landry Signé & Chelsea Johnson, 2021. "Africa’s Mining Potential: Trends, Opportunities, Challenges and Strategies," Research papers & Policy papers on Commodities & Energy 2104, Policy Center for the New South.
    29. Kim, Hyungtai & Ahn, Sanghoon & Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F., 2018. "Transportation infrastructure investment and the location of new manufacturing around South Korea's West Coast Expressway," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 146-154.
    30. Farhadi, Minoo, 2015. "Transport infrastructure and long-run economic growth in OECD countries," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 73-90.
    31. Tim Verheyden & Robert G. Eccles & Andreas Feiner, 2016. "ESG for All? The Impact of ESG Screening on Return, Risk, and Diversification," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 28(2), pages 47-55, June.
    32. Surbhi Gupta & Anil Kumar Sharma, 2022. "Evolution of infrastructure as an asset class: a systematic literature review and thematic analysis," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(3), pages 173-200, May.
    33. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    34. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Nabli, Mustapha K. & Yousef, Tarik M., 2005. "Public infrastructure and private investment in the Middle East and North Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3661, The World Bank.
    35. Yves S. Schüler, 2014. "Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty over the Business Cycle: A Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive Approach," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-02, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    36. MacKinnon, James G, 1994. "Approximate Asymptotic Distribution Functions for Unit-Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 167-176, April.
    37. Scott Thacker & Daniel Adshead & Marianne Fay & Stéphane Hallegatte & Mark Harvey & Hendrik Meller & Nicholas O’Regan & Julie Rozenberg & Graham Watkins & Jim W. Hall, 2019. "Infrastructure for sustainable development," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(4), pages 324-331, April.
    38. Hallegatte,Stephane & Rozenberg,Julie & Maruyama Rentschler,Jun Erik & Nicolas,Claire Marion & Fox,Charles James Edward, 2019. "Strengthening New Infrastructure Assets : A Cost-Benefit Analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8896, The World Bank.
    39. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
    40. Studart, Rogerio & Gallagher, Kevin, 2018. "Guaranteeing sustainable infrastructure," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 84-91.
    41. Joseph B. Oyedele & Alastair Adair & Stanley McGreal, 2014. "Performance of global listed infrastructure investment in a mixed asset portfolio," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1-25, March.
    42. Dan Daugaard, 2020. "Emerging new themes in environmental, social and governance investing: a systematic literature review," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1501-1530, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cocca, Teodoro & Gabauer, David & Pomberger, Stefan, 2024. "Clean energy market connectedness and investment strategies: New evidence from DCC-GARCH R2 decomposed connectedness measures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. Zhang, Wenting & He, Xie & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war on multiscale spillovers in green finance markets: Evidence from lower and higher order moments," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Furuoka, Fumitaka & Yaya, OlaOluwa Simon & Ling, Pui Kiew & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh & Islam, M. Nazmul, 2023. "Transmission of risks between energy and agricultural commodities: Frequency time-varying VAR, asymmetry and portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Gabauer, David & Dwumfour, Richard Adjei, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects among green bond, renewable energy stocks and carbon markets during COVID-19 pandemic: Implications for hedging and investments strategies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Dwumfour, Richard Adjei & Pan, Lei & Nsafoah, Dennis, 2025. "Dynamic spillovers and portfolio optimization in tourism, Fintech, and cryptocurrency," MPRA Paper 124157, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Evrim Mandacı, Pınar & Cagli, Efe Çaglar & Taşkın, Dilvin, 2020. "Dynamic connectedness and portfolio strategies: Energy and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Dang, Tam Hoang Nhat & Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Gabauer, David & Nguyen, Thi Thu Ha, 2024. "Sectoral uncertainty spillovers in emerging markets: A quantile time–frequency connectedness approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 121-139.
    8. Zhang, Wenting & He, Xie & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2022. "Volatility spillover and investment strategies among sustainability-related financial indexes: Evidence from the DCC-GARCH-based dynamic connectedness and DCC-GARCH t-copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    9. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Brahim, Mariem & Carlotti, Jean-Etienne & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mensi, Walid, 2024. "Extreme downside risk connectedness and portfolio hedging among the G10 currencies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    10. Man, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Sunpei & He, Yongda, 2024. "Dynamic risk spillover and hedging efficacy of China’s carbon-energy-finance markets: Economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiment non-linear causal effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1397-1416.
    11. Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Soo-Wah, Low & Billah, Mabruk, 2023. "Time-frequency connectedness and spillover among carbon, climate, and energy futures: Determinants and portfolio risk management implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    12. Huang, Zishan & Zhu, Huiming & Hau, Liya & Deng, Xi, 2023. "Time-frequency co-movement and network connectedness between green bond and financial asset markets: Evidence from multiscale TVP-VAR analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. Surbhi Gupta & Anil Kumar Sharma, 2022. "Evolution of infrastructure as an asset class: a systematic literature review and thematic analysis," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(3), pages 173-200, May.
    14. Huang, Wei-Qiang & Dai, Jing, 2025. "Optimal portfolio selection of China's green bond and stock markets: Evidence from the multi-frequency extreme risk connectedness," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 208-237.
    15. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Karim, Sitara, 2024. "Measuring the G20 stock market return transmission mechanism: Evidence from the R2 connectedness approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    16. Ali, Shoaib & Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Sindhu, Muzammal Ilyas & Naveed, Muhammad, 2025. "Sustainable synergy: Static and dynamic nexus between ESG and BRICS equity markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Guangxi Cao & Fei Xie, 2024. "Extreme risk spillovers across energy and carbon markets: Evidence from the quantile extended joint connectedness approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2155-2175, April.
    18. Louis Chakkalakal & Ulrich Hommel & Wenwei Li, 2018. "Transport infrastructure equities in mixed-asset portfolios: estimating risk with a Garch-Copula CVaR model," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 117-138, April.
    19. Shang, Jin & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2024. "Quantile time-frequency connectedness analysis between crude oil, gold, financial markets, and macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from the US and EU," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    20. Maneesh Gupta & Vipul Kumar Singh & Pawan Kumar, 2025. "Resilience of green bonds in portfolio diversification: evidence from crisis periods," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(3), pages 298-315, May.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2508.04858. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.