IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1304.4476.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?"

Author

Listed:
  • Bent Flyvbjerg
  • Mette K. Skamris Holm
  • S{o}ren L. Buhl

Abstract

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of causes of cost escalation in transport infrastructure projects. The study is based on a sample of 258 rail, bridge, tunnel and road projects worth US$90 billion. The focus is on the dependence of cost escalation on (1) length of project implementation phase, (2) size of project and (3) type of project ownership. First, it is found with very high statistical significance that cost escalation is strongly dependent on length of implementation phase. The policy implications are clear: Decision makers and planners should be highly concerned about delays and long implementation phases because they translate into risks of substantial cost escalations. Second, it is found that projects have grown larger over time and that for bridges and tunnels larger projects have larger percentage cost escalations. Finally, by comparing cost escalation for three types of project ownership--private, state-owned enterprise and other public ownership--it is shown that the oft-seen claim that public ownership is problematic and private ownership effective in curbing cost escalation is an oversimplification. Type of accountability appears to matter more to cost escalation than type of ownership.

Suggested Citation

  • Bent Flyvbjerg & Mette K. Skamris Holm & S{o}ren L. Buhl, 2013. "What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?"," Papers 1304.4476, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1304.4476
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1304.4476
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adler, Nicole & Pels, Eric & Nash, Chris, 2010. "High-speed rail and air transport competition: Game engineering as tool for cost-benefit analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 812-833, August.
    2. Nicole Adler & Chris Nash & Eric Pels, 2008. "High-Speed Rail & Air Transport Competition," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-103/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. de Rus, Gines, 2006. "Infraestructuras: más iniciativa privada y mejor sector público
      [Infrastructure: more private participation and better public sector]
      ," MPRA Paper 12000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ofelia Betancor & Gerard Llobet, 2015. "Contabilidad Financiera y Social de la Alta Velocidad en Espana," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2015-08, FEDEA.
    5. Gines De RUS, 2006. "Economic evaluation and incentives in transport infrastructure investment," Departmental Working Papers 2006-25, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    6. Joseph Sturm & Mashrur Chowdhury & Anne Dunning & Jennifer Ogle, 2011. "Analysis of cost estimation disclosure in environmental impact statements for surface transportation projects," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 525-544, May.
    7. de Rus, Gines & Nash, C.A., 2007. "In what circumstances is investment in HSR worthwhile?," MPRA Paper 8044, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Campos, Javier & de Rus, Ginés, 2009. "Some stylized facts about high-speed rail: A review of HSR experiences around the world," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-28, January.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1304.4476. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.