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Was There a Structural Break in Barry Bonds’ Bat?

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  • Stephen Clayton
  • Michael Nieswiadomy
  • Mark C. Strazicich

Abstract

We utilize time series tests to investigate if Barry Bonds’ batting has a deterministic or stochastic trend and to test if structural breaks occur. Bonds’ monthly on base percentage plus slugging percentage (OPS) is examined from 1986 to 2007. We find that Bonds’ OPS is stationary around two level and trend breaks. We find that Bonds’ OPS initially follows a positive trend to the age of 28.9 (June 1993), which coincides roughly with the expected peak performance age (27.6) for a MLB batter as identified by Fair (2008). Following this break, we find that Bonds’ OPS was on a plateau until a second break in September 2000. At this point, at the age of 36.1, Bonds’ OPS jumps up unexpectedly and declines slowly thereafter until his retirement in September 2007 at age 43. Key Words: age-effects, peak performance, baseball, OPS, structural break

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Clayton & Michael Nieswiadomy & Mark C. Strazicich, 2010. "Was There a Structural Break in Barry Bonds’ Bat?," Working Papers 10-13, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    • Handle: RePEc:apl:wpaper:10-13
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    File URL: http://econ.appstate.edu/RePEc/pdf/wp1013.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Brian M. Mills, 2017. "Policy Changes In Major League Baseball: Improved Agent Behavior And Ancillary Productivity Outcomes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 1104-1118, April.
    2. Peter A. Groothuis & Kurt W. Rotthoff & Mark C. Strazicich, 2017. "Structural Breaks in the Game," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(6), pages 622-637, August.
    3. Craig A. Depken II & Peter A. Groothuis & Mark C. Strazicich, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of the Enforcer in the National Hockey League," Working Papers 16-12, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    4. Vock David Michael & Vock Laura Frances Boehm, 2018. "Estimating the effect of plate discipline using a causal inference framework: an application of the G-computation algorithm," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 37-56, June.
    5. Craig A. Depken & Peter A. Groothuis & Mark C. Strazicich, 2020. "Evolution Of Community Deterrence: Evidence From The National Hockey League," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 289-303, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    age-effects; peak performance; baseball; ops; structural break;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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