IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/apc/wpaper/198.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Large shocks travel fast

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto Cavallo
  • Francesco Lippi
  • Ken Miyahara

Abstract

We leverage the inflation upswing of 2022 and various granular data sets to identify robust price setting patterns following a large supply shock. We show that the frequency of price changes increases dramatically after a large shock. We setup a parsimonious New Keynesian model and calibrate it to fit the steady state data before the shock. The model features a significant component of state-dependent decisions, implying that large cost shocks incite firms to react more swiftly than usual, resulting in a rapid pass-through to prices—large shocks travel fast. Understanding this feature is crucial for interpreting recent inflation dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Cavallo & Francesco Lippi & Ken Miyahara, 2024. "Large shocks travel fast," Working Papers 198, Peruvian Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:apc:wpaper:198
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://perueconomics.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/WP-198.pdf
    File Function: Application/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Etienne Gagnon & David López-Salido & Nicolas Vincent, 2013. "Individual Price Adjustment along the Extensive Margin," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 235-281.
    2. Karadi, Peter & Amann, Juergen & Bachiller, Javier Sánchez & Seiler, Pascal & Wursten, Jesse, 2023. "Price setting on the two sides of the Atlantic - Evidence from supermarket scanner data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 1-17.
    3. Virgiliu Midrigan, 2011. "Menu Costs, Multiproduct Firms, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 1139-1180, July.
    4. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Engel, Eduardo M.R.A., 2007. "Price stickiness in Ss models: New interpretations of old results," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 100-121, September.
    5. Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "State-Dependent Pricing and the General Equilibrium Dynamics of Money and Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 655-690.
    6. Alberto Cavallo & Roberto Rigobon, 2016. "The Billion Prices Project: Using Online Prices for Measurement and Research," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 151-178, Spring.
    7. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2010. "Monetary Non-neutrality in a Multisector Menu Cost Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 961-1013.
    8. Mikhail Golosov & Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2007. "Menu Costs and Phillips Curves," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(2), pages 171-199.
    9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 1999. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 783-826, July.
    10. Alberto Cavallo, 2018. "Scraped Data and Sticky Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 105-119, March.
    11. Erwan Gautier & Magali Marx & Paul Vertier, 2023. "How Do Gasoline Prices Respond to a Cost Shock?," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(4), pages 707-741.
    12. Lippi, Francesco & Alvarez, Fernando & Ferrara, Andrea & Gautier, Erwan & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2021. "Empirical Investigation of a Sufficient Statistic for Monetary Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 16626, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Aleksei Oskolkov, 2022. "The Macroeconomics of Sticky Prices with Generalized Hazard Functions [“Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market With Information Costs and Transactions Costs,”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 137(2), pages 989-1038.
    14. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Juan Passadore, 2017. "Are State- and Time-Dependent Models Really Different?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 379-457.
    15. Peter Karadi & Adam Reiff, 2019. "Menu Costs, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Large Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 111-146, July.
    16. Isaac Baley & Andrés Blanco, 2021. "Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1235-1264, May.
    17. Michael Dotsey & Alexander L. Wolman, 2020. "Investigating Nonneutrality In A State‐Dependent Pricing Model With Firm‐Level Productivity Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(1), pages 159-188, February.
    18. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki, 2010. "Frequency of Price Adjustment and Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(2), pages 675-727.
    19. Mark Gertler & John Leahy, 2008. "A Phillips Curve with an Ss Foundation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 533-572, June.
    20. Woodford, Michael, 2009. "Information-constrained state-dependent pricing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages 100-124.
    21. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2022. "The Analytic Theory of a Monetary Shock," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1655-1680, July.
    22. James Costain & Anton Nakov, 2011. "Price Adjustments in a General Model of State‐Dependent Pricing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2‐3), pages 385-406, March.
    23. Martin Eichenbaum & Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Reference Prices, Costs, and Nominal Rigidities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 234-262, February.
    24. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carvalho, Carlos & Kryvtsov, Oleksiy, 2021. "Price selection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 56-75.
    2. Luo, Shaowen & Villar, Daniel, 2021. "The price adjustment hazard function: Evidence from high inflation periods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    3. Costain, James & Nakov, Anton, 2015. "Precautionary price stickiness," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 218-234.
    4. Fernando Alvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Francesco Lippi, 2013. "Small and Large Price Changes and the Propagation of Monetary Shocks," EIEF Working Papers Series 1318, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Aug 2013.
    5. Stephane Dupraz, 2017. "A Kinked-Demand Theory of Price Rigidity," 2017 Meeting Papers 387, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Peter J. Klenow & Jonathan L. Willis, 2016. "Real Rigidities and Nominal Price Changes," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 443-472, July.
    7. Anton Nakov & James Costain, 2009. "Dynamics of the Price Distribution in a General Model of State-Dependent Pricing," 2009 Meeting Papers 611, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Costain, James & Nakov, Anton, 2011. "Distributional dynamics under smoothly state-dependent pricing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 646-665.
    9. Emmanuel Dhyne & Catherine Fuss & M. Hashem Pesaran & Patrick Sevestre, 2011. "Lumpy Price Adjustments: A Microeconometric Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 529-540, October.
    10. Peter Karadi & Adam Reiff, 2019. "Menu Costs, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Large Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 111-146, July.
    11. Karadi, Peter & Schoenle, Raphael & Wursten, Jesse, 2020. "Measuring Price Selection in Microdata - It's Not There," CEPR Discussion Papers 15383, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Demery, David, 2012. "State-dependent pricing and the non-neutrality of money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 933-944.
    13. Stéphane Dupraz, 2024. "A Kinked‐Demand Theory of Price Rigidity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(2-3), pages 325-363, March.
    14. Hobijn, Bart & Nechio, Fernanda & Shapiro, Adam Hale, 2021. "Using Brexit to identify the nature of price rigidities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    15. Guido Ascari & Timo Haber, 2019. "Sticky prices and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy: A minimal test of New Keynesian models," Economics Series Working Papers 869, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    16. Woodford, Michael, 2009. "Information-constrained state-dependent pricing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages 100-124.
    17. James Costain & Anton Nakov, 2011. "Price Adjustments in a General Model of State‐Dependent Pricing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2‐3), pages 385-406, March.
    18. Erwan Gautier & Ronan Le Saout, 2015. "The Dynamics of Gasoline Prices: Evidence from Daily French Micro Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(6), pages 1063-1089, September.
    19. Gautier, Erwan & Karadi, Peter & Conflitti, Cristina & Fabo, Brian & Fadejeva, Ludmila & Fuss, Catherine & Kosma, Theodora & Jouvanceau, Valentin & Martins, Fernando & Menz, Jan-Oliver & Messner, Tere, 2023. "Price adjustment in the euro area in the low-inflation period: evidence from consumer and producer micro price data," Occasional Paper Series 319, European Central Bank.
    20. Shoji, Toshiaki, 2022. "Menu costs and information rigidity: Evidence from the consumption tax hike in Japan," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    sticky prices; supply shocks; passthrough; generalized hazard function;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:apc:wpaper:198. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nelson Ramírez-Rondán (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/peruvea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.