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Large shocks travel fast

Author

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  • Cavallo, Alberto
  • Lippi, Francesco
  • Miyahara, Ken

Abstract

We leverage the inflation upswing of 2022 and various granular data sets to identify robust price setting patterns following a large supply shock. We show that the frequency of price changes increases dramatically after a large shock. We setup a parsimonious New Keynesian model and calibrate it to fit the steady state data before the shock. The model features a significant component of state-dependent decisions, implying that large cost shocks incite firms to react more swiftly than usual, resulting in a rapid pass- through to prices—large shocks travel fast. Understanding this feature is crucial for interpreting recent inflation dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Cavallo, Alberto & Lippi, Francesco & Miyahara, Ken, 2023. "Large shocks travel fast," CEPR Discussion Papers 18413, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18413
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    2. Thomas Kohler & Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Gregory Phelan & Maximilian Weiß, 2025. "Why Do Supply Disruptions Lead to Inflation? Survey Evidence from the COVID Pandemic," CESifo Working Paper Series 12212, CESifo.
    3. Bušs, Ginters & Traficante, Guido, 2025. "The Return of Inflation: Look-Through Policy Under Incomplete Information," Dynare Working Papers 85, CEPREMAP.
    4. Cameron Haas & Mateo Hoyos & Emiliano Libman & Guilherme K. Martins & Arslan Razmi, 2025. "Monetary Shocks and Inflation: Global Evidence from Trilemma-Based Identification," Working Papers DTE 650, CIDE, División de Economía.
    5. Elisa Guglielminetti & Michele Loberto, 2025. "Inflation expectations and price-setting decisions: insights from the housing market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1507, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Michael Reiter & Adrian Wende, 2024. "Generalized Rotemberg Price-Setting," CESifo Working Paper Series 11297, CESifo.
    7. Gregory Phelan & Thomas Kohler & Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Maximilian Weiss, 2025. "Why Do Supply Disruptions Lead to Inflation?," Department of Economics Working Papers 2025-104, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    8. Ken Miyahara, 2025. "On the cyclicality of durable consumption responses," Working Papers 210, Peruvian Economic Association.
    9. Elisa Guglielminetti & Alessandro Lin & Andrea Tiseno, 2025. "The many shades of uncertainty and monetary policy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 978, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Frédéric Vinas, 2025. "Oil Shocks and their Impact on Corporate Profitability, Productivity, and Credit Risk: Firm-Level Evidence Over Two Decades," Working papers 989, Banque de France.
    11. Stefano Neri, 2025. "Energy prices, inflation and the ECB's monetary policy during the 2021-22 energy crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1481, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Jordà, Òscar & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2025. "Decomposing the monetary policy multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    13. Pablo Cuba-Borda & Jean-Paul L'Huillier, 2025. "Inflation is a Supply Phenomenon," Working Papers 137, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    14. Alberto Cavallo & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2024. "Price Discounts and Cheapflation during the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Nickel, Christiane & Kilponen, Juha & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Koester, Gerrit & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Enders, Almira & Holton, Sarah & Landau, Bettina & Venditti, Fabrizio & Bobeica, Elena & Brand, Cla, 2025. "A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
    16. Miescu, Mirela & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2024. "Non-linear Dynamics of Oil Supply News Shocks," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    17. Karadi, Peter & Nakov, Anton & Nuño, Galo & Pasten, Ernesto & Thaler, Dominik, 2025. "Why monetary policy should crack down harder during high inflation," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 130.

    More about this item

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    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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