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Crescimento Econômico De Longo Prazo Na China: Uma Investigação Econométrica

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  • Flávio Vilela Vieira
  • Michele Polline Veríssimo

Abstract

The main goal os this paper is to understand on theoretical and empirical grounds the main determinants of China´s long-run economic growth. The historical data analysis suggests a crucial role played by FDI and the exchange rate. The econometric analysis provides empirical support for the primary role played by the exchange rate in explaining China´s economic growth (1970 to 2003) followed by FDI, investment rate and trade opennesss. Exchange rate policy and regime seems to be a direct road to explain (past and future) economic growth in China and the conditions for increasing exchange rate flexibility, an almost sure path for the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Flávio Vilela Vieira & Michele Polline Veríssimo, 2005. "Crescimento Econômico De Longo Prazo Na China: Uma Investigação Econométrica," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 067, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:067
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    File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro2005/artigos/A05A067.pdf
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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