IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qld/uqeaer/02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating China�s de-facto capital account convertibility

Author

Abstract

China�s capital account convertibility is presently not well understood. A relatively closed de jure regime sits in contrast with a de facto regime that exhibits distinct signs of being quite open. This paper seeks to shed light on this issue by using an econometric model to predict the level of capital flows that would be expected if China had a fully open capital account. The results show that over 2001-2003, observed capital flows were around 85 percent of the predicted value, suggesting that China�s capital account over a one year time horizon is already quite open. Short run convertibility would expectedly be less than this figure. Thus, the results carry the connotation that the cost of capital controls in terms of allocative inefficiency over the medium and long run is likely to have been modest while some unwarranted short run volatility has been avoided. Nonetheless, the results do not leave room for policy complacency. As China continues to implement its WTO commitments in addition to other arrangements such as the Common Economic Partnership Agreement with Hong Kong, short run convertibility is presently on the rise. This makes implementing policies that are prerequisites for full convertibility a matter of urgency.

Suggested Citation

  • James Laurenceson & Kam Ki Tang, "undated". "Estimating China�s de-facto capital account convertibility," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0205, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:qld:uqeaer:02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/eaerg/dp/0205.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2003. "China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A quantitative assessment of real and financial integration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 281-303.
    2. Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 421-480 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Chang, Gene Hsin & Shao, Qin, 2004. "How much is the Chinese currency undervalued? A quantitative estimation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 366-371.
    4. Dasgupta, Dipak & Ratha, Dilip, 2000. "What factors appear to drive private capital flows to developing countries? and how does official lending respond?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2392, The World Bank.
    5. Ivan Roberts & Rod Tyers, 2003. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: The Case for Greater Flexibility," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 155-184, June.
    6. Wei, Shang-Jin, 1995. "Attracting foreign direct investment: Has China reached its potential?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 187-199.
    7. Eichengreen, Barry, 2004. "Chinese Currency Controversies," CEPR Discussion Papers 4375, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Mundell, Robert, 2003. "Prospects for an Asian currency area," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, February.
    9. repec:idb:brikps:9167 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Petar Vujanovic, 2011. "Understanding the Recent Surge in the Accumulation of International Reserves," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 866, OECD Publishing.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qld:uqeaer:02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SOE IT). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/decuqau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.