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China's capital account convertibility and financial stability



Capital account convertibility in China is on the rise. Some see the process as a means of circumventing domestic financial sector inefficiency while others view it as potentially exposing China to financial crises. In considering these different viewpoints, this paper attempts to quantify the impact that opening the capital account will have on the volume of China�s international capital flows. It is found that were China to fully open its capital account, gross non-FDI capital flows are predicted to rise by around 4.6 percent of GDP. While an increase of this magnitude would present a prudential challenge for China�s monetary authorities, it does not appear to be large enough to seriously call into question financial sector stability, either in China or abroad.

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  • James Laurenceson & Kam Ki Tang, "undated". "China's capital account convertibility and financial stability," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0505, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:qld:uqeaer:05

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
    2. Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 421-480 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    4. Warwick J. McKibbin & K. K. Tang, 2000. "Trade and Financial Reform in China: Impacts on the World Economy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(8), pages 979-1003, August.
    5. Dasgupta, Dipak & Ratha, Dilip, 2000. "What factors appear to drive private capital flows to developing countries? and how does official lending respond?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2392, The World Bank.
    6. Jacques Miniane, 2004. "A New Set of Measures on Capital Account Restrictions," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 1-4.
    7. Eichengreen, Barry, 2004. "Chinese Currency Controversies," CEPR Discussion Papers 4375, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. repec:idb:brikps:9167 is not listed on IDEAS
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