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Qualitative Forecast Evaluation: A Comparison of Two Performance Measures

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  • McIntosh, Christopher
  • Dorfman, Jeffrey

Abstract

Agricultural producers and marketers often have access to several sets of forecasts on the same series. Decision makers must be able to evaluate the relative accuracy of the forecasts. The ability to evaluate whether a series will move up or down is important for series related to futures, options, other asset prices, and situations where processes can be modified according to changing economic conditions. A measure of qualitative forecast accuracy from Naik and Leuthold is compared to a probability-based measure developed by Henriksson and Merton. The Henriksson-Merton measure is shown to provide additional, and more accurate, information concerning a model's qualitative forecasting ability.
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Suggested Citation

  • McIntosh, Christopher & Dorfman, Jeffrey, 1991. "Qualitative Forecast Evaluation: A Comparison of Two Performance Measures," WAEA/ WFEA Conference Archive (1929-1995) 321479, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:waeaar:321479
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.321479
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    1. Kost, William E., 1980. "Model Validation And The Net Trade Model," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 32(02), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Gopal Naik & Raymond M. Leuthold, 1986. "A Note on Qualitative Forecast Evaluation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(3), pages 721-726.
    3. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-533, October.
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    9. Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 363-406, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bellemare, Marc F., 2012. "As You Sow, So Shall You Reap: The Welfare Impacts of Contract Farming," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1418-1434.
    2. Chu, Chia-Shang & Lu, Liping & Shi, Zhentao, 2009. "Pitfalls in market timing test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 123-126, June.
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    4. Giacomo Zanello & Chittur S. Srinivasan & Bhavani Shankar, 2014. "Transaction Costs, Information Technologies, and the Choice of Marketplace among Farmers in Northern Ghana," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(9), pages 1226-1239, September.
    5. Miquel Clar & Juan-Carlos Duque & Rosina Moreno, 2007. "Forecasting business and consumer surveys indicators-a time-series models competition," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2565-2580.
    6. Fu, Xiaolan & Mohnen, Pierre & Zanello, Giacomo, 2018. "Innovation and productivity in formal and informal firms in Ghana," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 315-325.
    7. Byrne, Paul F., 2005. "Strategic interaction and the adoption of tax increment financing," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 279-303, May.
    8. Bingzi Jin & Xiaojie Xu, 2025. "Machine learning price index forecasts of flat steel products," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 38(1), pages 97-117, March.
    9. Coates, Jennifer & Patenaude, Bryan N. & Rogers, Beatrice Lorge & Roba, Alemzewed Challa & Woldetensay, Yitbarek Kidane & Tilahun, Addisalem Fikre & Spielman, Kathryn L., 2018. "Intra-household nutrient inequity in rural Ethiopia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 82-94.
    10. Beck, Thorsten & Silva-Buston, Consuelo & Wagner, Wolf, 2023. "The Economics of Supranational Bank Supervision," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 324-351, February.
    11. Aubry, Mathilde & Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 2014. "Semiconductor industry cycles: Explanatory factors and forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 221-231.
    12. Wossen, Tesfamicheal & Abdoulaye, Tahirou & Alene, Arega & Feleke, Shiferaw & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob & Manyong, Victor & Awotide, Bola Amoke, 2017. "Productivity and Welfare Effects of Nigeria's e-Voucher-Based Input Subsidy Program," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 251-265.
    13. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & MacDonald, Stephen & Xie, Ran, 2012. "A Comprehensive Evaluation of USDA Cotton Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(01), pages 1-16, April.
    14. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2005. "A Test of Forecast Consistency Using USDA Livestock Price Forecasts," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19042, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    15. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2003. "USDA Livestock Price Forecasts: A Comprehensive Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 1-19, August.
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    17. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.

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