IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/ajagec/v74y1992i1p209-214..html

Qualitative Forecast Evaluation: A Comparison of Two Performance Measures

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher S. McIntosh
  • Jeffrey H. Dorfman

Abstract

Agricultural producers and marketers often have access to several sets of forecasts on the same series. Decision makers must be able to evaluate the relative accuracy of the forecasts. The ability to evaluate whether a series will move up or down is important for series related to futures, options, other asset prices, and situations where processes can be modified according to changing economic conditions. A measure of qualitative forecast accuracy from Naik and Leuthold is compared to a probability-based measure developed by Henriksson and Merton. The Henriksson-Merton measure is shown to provide additional, and more accurate, information concerning a model's qualitative forecasting ability.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher S. McIntosh & Jeffrey H. Dorfman, 1992. "Qualitative Forecast Evaluation: A Comparison of Two Performance Measures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(1), pages 209-214.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:74:y:1992:i:1:p:209-214.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1243005
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2005. "A Test of Forecast Consistency Using USDA Livestock Price Forecasts," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19042, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    2. Coates, Jennifer & Patenaude, Bryan N. & Rogers, Beatrice Lorge & Roba, Alemzewed Challa & Woldetensay, Yitbarek Kidane & Tilahun, Addisalem Fikre & Spielman, Kathryn L., 2018. "Intra-household nutrient inequity in rural Ethiopia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 82-94.
    3. Aubry, Mathilde & Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 2014. "Semiconductor industry cycles: Explanatory factors and forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 221-231.
    4. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & MacDonald, Stephen & Xie, Ran, 2012. "A Comprehensive Evaluation of USDA Cotton Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(01), pages 1-16, April.
    5. Beck, Thorsten & Silva-Buston, Consuelo & Wagner, Wolf, 2023. "The Economics of Supranational Bank Supervision," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 324-351, February.
    6. Fu, Xiaolan & Mohnen, Pierre & Zanello, Giacomo, 2018. "Innovation and productivity in formal and informal firms in Ghana," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 315-325.
    7. Byrne, Paul F., 2005. "Strategic interaction and the adoption of tax increment financing," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 279-303, May.
    8. Giacomo Zanello & Chittur S. Srinivasan & Bhavani Shankar, 2014. "Transaction Costs, Information Technologies, and the Choice of Marketplace among Farmers in Northern Ghana," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(9), pages 1226-1239, September.
    9. Bingzi Jin & Xiaojie Xu, 2025. "Machine learning price index forecasts of flat steel products," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 38(1), pages 97-117, March.
    10. Wossen, Tesfamicheal & Abdoulaye, Tahirou & Alene, Arega & Feleke, Shiferaw & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob & Manyong, Victor & Awotide, Bola Amoke, 2017. "Productivity and Welfare Effects of Nigeria's e-Voucher-Based Input Subsidy Program," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 251-265.
    11. Kuethe, Todd H. & Regmi, Hari, 2023. "An Evaluation of Congressional Budget Office’s Baseline Projections of USDA Mandatory Farm and Nutrition Programs," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335690, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. repec:ags:aaea22:335690 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:ags:jrapmc:122314 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Miquel Clar & Juan-Carlos Duque & Rosina Moreno, 2007. "Forecasting business and consumer surveys indicators-a time-series models competition," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2565-2580.
    15. Chu, Chia-Shang & Lu, Liping & Shi, Zhentao, 2009. "Pitfalls in market timing test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 123-126, June.
    16. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    17. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2003. "USDA Livestock Price Forecasts: A Comprehensive Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 1-19, August.
    18. Bellemare, Marc F., 2012. "As You Sow, So Shall You Reap: The Welfare Impacts of Contract Farming," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1418-1434.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:74:y:1992:i:1:p:209-214.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.