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Predicting aggregate food consumption for a specific geographic area: an application to southeast Minnesota

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  • Wang, Yuki

Abstract

This thesis develops a framework for estimating food expenditures for a variety of U.S. communities, including regions, states counties and metropolitan areas. The framework is then illustrated by providing estimates of household expenditures for 19 food categories at the national level, in the Twin Cities metropolitan area and in the Southeastern Minnesota area. First household characteristics are related to food expenditures using Consumer Expenditure Survey Data (CEX); then expenditures are aggregated at the community level by applying household demographic profiles from American Community Survey data to the estimations from Consumer Expenditure Survey data. This research is distinctive because (1) it suggests a general and universal model for forecasting food expenditure patterns at almost any regional level; and (2) it provides a good estimation of food expenditure to match with current foodshed analysis. The regression results present a comprehensive relationship between demographic factors and consumer expenditures on 19 food categories. Findings also show that household purchasing patterns are significantly different across regions and that it is not accurate to use average CEX results for the nation to estimate aggregate expenditure by households in a particular locale.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Yuki, 2011. "Predicting aggregate food consumption for a specific geographic area: an application to southeast Minnesota," Master's Theses and Plan B Papers 161441, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:umapmt:161441
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/161441/files/Yuki_s_Plan_B_Thesis_Final_0125.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Steven T. Yen & Helen H. Jensen, 1995. "Determinants of Household Expenditures on Alcohol," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 95-wp144, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    2. Heien, Dale & Durham, Cathy, 1991. "A Test of the Habit Formation Hypothesis Using Household Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 189-199, May.
    3. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
    4. Steven Yen & Kamhon Kan & Shew-Jiuan Su, 2002. "Household demand for fats and oils: two-step estimation of a censored demand system," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(14), pages 1799-1806.
    5. Jack Kloppenburg & John Hendrickson & G. Stevenson, 1996. "Coming in to the foodshed," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 13(3), pages 33-42, June.
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