IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uersrr/262231.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Potential Impact of Changes in Immigration Policy on U.S. Agriculture and the Market for Hired Farm Labor: A Simulation Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Zahniser, Steven
  • Hertz, Thomas
  • Rimmer, Maureen T.
  • Dixon, Peter B.

Abstract

Large shifts in the supply of foreign-born, hired farm labor resulting from substantial changes in U.S. immigration laws or policies could have significant economic implications. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy is used to evaluate how changes in the supply of foreign-born labor might affect all sectors of the economy, including agriculture. Two scenarios are considered: an increase in the number of temporary nonimmigrant, foreign-born farmworkers, such as those admitted under the H-2A Temporary Agricultural Program, and a decrease in the number of unauthorized workers in all sectors of the economy. Longrun economic outcomes for agricultural output and exports, wages and employment levels, and national income accruing to U.S.-born and foreign- born, permanent resident workers in these two scenarios are compared with a base forecast reflecting current immigration laws and policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Zahniser, Steven & Hertz, Thomas & Rimmer, Maureen T. & Dixon, Peter B., 2012. "The Potential Impact of Changes in Immigration Policy on U.S. Agriculture and the Market for Hired Farm Labor: A Simulation Analysis," Economic Research Report 262231, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:262231
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.262231
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/262231/files/20514_err135_1_.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/262231/files/20514_err135_1_.pdf?subformat=pdfa
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.262231?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2021. "Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 9, pages 245-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Devadoss, Stephen & Luckstead, Jeff, 2008. "Contributions of Immigrant Farmworkers to California Vegetable Production," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(3), pages 879-894, December.
    3. Philip Martin & Linda Calvin, 2010. "Immigration Reform: What Does It Mean for Agriculture and Rural America?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 232-253.
    4. Walmsley, Terrie L. & Winters, L. Alan & Ahmed, S. Amer & Parsons, Christopher R., 2005. "Measuring the Impact of the Movement of Labour Using a Model of Bilateral Migration Flows," Conference papers 331440, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Huffman, Wallace, 2007. "Demand for Farm Labor in the Coastal Fruit and Salad Bowl States Relative to Midland States: Four Decades of Experience," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12827, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & Kamar Ali, 2008. "Recent Immigration and Economic Outcomes in Rural America," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1326-1333.
    7. James A. Duffield & Robert Coltrane, 1992. "Testing for Disequilibrium in the Hired Farm Labor Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(2), pages 412-420.
    8. Amy M. G. Kandilov & Ivan T. Kandilov, 2010. "Job Displacement from Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 591-607.
    9. Hoppe, Robert A. & Banker, David E., 2010. "Structure and Finances of U.S. Farms: Family Farm Report, 2010 Edition," Economic Information Bulletin 291950, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. Wise, Donald E, 1974. "The Effect of the Bracero on Agricultural Production in California," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(4), pages 547-558, December.
    11. Peter B. Dixon & Martin Johnson & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2011. "Economy‐Wide Effects Of Reducing Illegal Immigrants In U.S. Employment," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(1), pages 14-30, January.
    12. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 2, pages 35-80 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Anderson, David P. & Adcock, Flynn & Rosson, C. Parr, 2017. "The Economic Impacts of Immigrant Labor on U.S. Dairy Farms," Agricultural Outlook Forum 2017 260504, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Outlook Forum.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rickard, Bradley J., 2015. "On the political economy of guest worker programs in agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-8.
    2. Rickard, Bradley J., 2014. "On the Political Economy of Guest Worker Programs in Agriculture," Working Papers 180139, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    3. Tianyuan Luo & Genti Kostandini, 2022. "Stringent immigration enforcement and responses of the immigrant‐intensive sector: Evidence from E‐Verify adoption in Arizona," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(4), pages 1411-1434, August.
    4. Ifft, Jennifer & Jodlowski, Margaret, 2022. "Is ICE freezing US agriculture? Farm-level adjustment to increased local immigration enforcement," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Ifft, Jennifer & Jodlowski, Margaret, 2016. "Is ICE Freezing US Agriculture? The Impact of Local Immigration Enforcement on Farm Profitability and Structure," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235950, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nikolaj Malchow-Møller & Jakob Roland Munch & Claus Aastrup Seidelin & Jan Rose Skaksen, 2013. "Immigrant Workers and Farm Performance: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(4), pages 819-841.
    2. Kabir, Kayenat & Keeney, Roman M., 2017. "Modeling undocumented migration from Mexico to the United States – A structural examination of available information and options for analysis," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258376, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Francesco D’Amuri & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2021. "The labor market impact of immigration in Western Germany in the 1990s," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 8, pages 223-243, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Viola von Berlepsch, 2012. "When migrants rule: the legacy of mass migration on economic development in the US," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1216, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Aug 2012.
    5. Bernt Bratsberg & Oddbjørn Raaum & Marianne Røed & Pål Schøne, 2010. "Immigration Wage Impacts by Origin," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1030, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    6. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert & Hauptmann, Andreas, 2009. "EU-Osterweiterung: Positive Effekte durch Arbeitsmigration (EU eastern enlargement: Benefits from labour migration)," IAB-Kurzbericht 200909, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Berger, Johannes & Strohner, Ludwig, 2020. "Documentation of the PUblic Policy Model for Austria and other European countries (PUMA)," Research Papers 11, EcoAustria – Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Dustmann, Christian & Glitz, Albrecht & Vogel, Thorsten, 2010. "Employment, wages, and the economic cycle: Differences between immigrants and natives," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 1-17, January.
    9. Leah Platt Boustan & Price V. Fishback & Shawn Kantor, 2010. "The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets:American Cities during the Great Depression," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(4), pages 719-746, October.
    10. Lemos, Sara & Portes, Jonathan, 2008. "New Labour? The Impact of Migration from Central and Eastern European Countries on the UK Labour Market," IZA Discussion Papers 3756, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Julie Fry, 2014. "Migration and Macroeconomic Performance in New Zealand: Theory and Evidence," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/10, New Zealand Treasury.
    12. Grace Melo & Gregory Colson & Octavio A. Ramirez, 2014. "Hispanic American Opinions toward Immigration and Immigration Policy Reform Proposals," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 604-622.
    13. Pholphirul, Piriya, 2013. "Immigration, job vacancies, and employment dynamics: Evidence from Thai manufacturers," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-16.
    14. Bentolila, Samuel & Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 2008. "Does immigration affect the Phillips curve? Some evidence for Spain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1398-1423, November.
    15. Marcelo Castillo & Diane Charlton, 2023. "Housing booms and H‐2A agricultural guest worker employment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(2), pages 709-731, March.
    16. Declan Trott, 2012. "A capital mistake? The neglected effect of immigration on average wages," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 873-876, June.
    17. Kunrong Shen & Jixiang Yu & Jian Li, 2011. "Labor mobility, marketization and urban income change: Potential rural-urban harmonization or not," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 6(3), pages 447-463, September.
    18. Tushar Bharati & Wina Yoman, 2021. "Internal Migration and Labor Market Outcomes in Indonesia," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 21-05, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    19. Herbert Brücker & Elke J. Jahn, 2011. "Migration and Wage‐setting: Reassessing the Labor Market Effects of Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(2), pages 286-317, June.
    20. Ather H. Akbari & Yigit Aydede, 2013. "Are the educational credentials of immigrant and native-born workers perfect substitutes in Canadian labour markets? A production function analysis," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 485-502, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:262231. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.