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The Potential Impact of Changes in Immigration Policy on U.S. Agriculture and the Market for Hired Farm Labor: A Simulation Analysis

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  • Zahniser, Steven
  • Hertz, Thomas
  • Rimmer, Maureen T.
  • Dixon, Peter B.

Abstract

Large shifts in the supply of foreign-born, hired farm labor resulting from substantial changes in U.S. immigration laws or policies could have significant economic implications. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy is used to evaluate how changes in the supply of foreign-born labor might affect all sectors of the economy, including agriculture. Two scenarios are considered: an increase in the number of temporary nonimmigrant, foreign-born farmworkers, such as those admitted under the H-2A Temporary Agricultural Program, and a decrease in the number of unauthorized workers in all sectors of the economy. Longrun economic outcomes for agricultural output and exports, wages and employment levels, and national income accruing to U.S.-born and foreign- born, permanent resident workers in these two scenarios are compared with a base forecast reflecting current immigration laws and policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Zahniser, Steven & Hertz, Thomas & Rimmer, Maureen T. & Dixon, Peter B., 2012. "The Potential Impact of Changes in Immigration Policy on U.S. Agriculture and the Market for Hired Farm Labor: A Simulation Analysis," Economic Research Report 262231, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:262231
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.262231
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2021. "Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 9, pages 245-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & Kamar Ali, 2008. "Recent Immigration and Economic Outcomes in Rural America," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1326-1333.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rickard, Bradley J., 2014. "On the Political Economy of Guest Worker Programs in Agriculture," Working Papers 180139, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    2. Ifft, Jennifer & Jodlowski, Margaret, 2016. "Is ICE Freezing US Agriculture? The Impact of Local Immigration Enforcement on Farm Profitability and Structure," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235950, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Rickard, Bradley J., 2015. "On the political economy of guest worker programs in agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-8.
    4. Marten, Alex L. & Garabccio, Richard, 2018. "An Applied General Equilibrium Model for the Analysis of Environmental Policy: SAGE v1.0 Technical Documentation," National Center for Environmental Economics-NCEE Working Papers 280948, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
    5. Tianyuan Luo & Genti Kostandini, 2022. "Stringent immigration enforcement and responses of the immigrant‐intensive sector: Evidence from E‐Verify adoption in Arizona," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(4), pages 1411-1434, August.
    6. Ifft, Jennifer & Jodlowski, Margaret, 2022. "Is ICE freezing US agriculture? Farm-level adjustment to increased local immigration enforcement," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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