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The Potential Impact of Changes in Immigration Policy on U.S. Agriculture and the Market for Hired Farm Labor: A Simulation Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Zahniser, Steven
  • Hertz, Thomas
  • Rimmer, Maureen T.
  • Dixon, Peter B.

Abstract

Large shifts in the supply of foreign-born, hired farm labor resulting from substantial changes in U.S. immigration laws or policies could have significant economic implications. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy is used to evaluate how changes in the supply of foreign-born labor might affect all sectors of the economy, including agriculture. Two scenarios are considered: an increase in the number of temporary nonimmigrant, foreign-born farmworkers, such as those admitted under the H-2A Temporary Agricultural Program, and a decrease in the number of unauthorized workers in all sectors of the economy. Longrun economic outcomes for agricultural output and exports, wages and employment levels, and national income accruing to U.S.-born and foreign- born, permanent resident workers in these two scenarios are compared with a base forecast reflecting current immigration laws and policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Zahniser, Steven & Hertz, Thomas & Rimmer, Maureen T. & Dixon, Peter B., 2012. "The Potential Impact of Changes in Immigration Policy on U.S. Agriculture and the Market for Hired Farm Labor: A Simulation Analysis," Economic Research Report 262231, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:262231
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.262231
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & Kamar Ali, 2008. "Recent Immigration and Economic Outcomes in Rural America," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1326-1333.
    2. Devadoss, Stephen & Luckstead, Jeff, 2008. "Contributions of Immigrant Farmworkers to California Vegetable Production," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Peter B. Dixon & Martin Johnson & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2011. "Economy‐Wide Effects Of Reducing Illegal Immigrants In U.S. Employment," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(1), pages 14-30, January.
    4. Anderson, David P. & Adcock, Flynn & Rosson, C. Parr, 2017. "The Economic Impacts of Immigrant Labor on U.S. Dairy Farms," Agricultural Outlook Forum 2017 260504, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Outlook Forum.
    5. Philip Martin & Linda Calvin, 2010. "Immigration Reform: What Does It Mean for Agriculture and Rural America?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 232-253.
    6. Walmsley, Terrie L. & Winters, L. Alan & Ahmed, S. Amer, 2007. "Measuring the Impact of the Movement of Labor Using a Model of Bilateral Migration Flows," Technical Papers 283426, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. James A. Duffield & Robert Coltrane, 1992. "Testing for Disequilibrium in the Hired Farm Labor Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(2), pages 412-420.
    8. Amy M. G. Kandilov & Ivan T. Kandilov, 2010. "Job Displacement from Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 591-607.
    9. Huffman, Wallace, 2007. "Demand for Farm Labor in the Coastal Fruit and Salad Bowl States Relative to Midland States: Four Decades of Experience," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12827, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rickard, Bradley J., 2014. "On the Political Economy of Guest Worker Programs in Agriculture," Working Papers 180139, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    2. Ifft, Jennifer & Jodlowski, Margaret, 2016. "Is ICE Freezing US Agriculture? The Impact of Local Immigration Enforcement on Farm Profitability and Structure," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235950, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Rickard, Bradley J., 2015. "On the political economy of guest worker programs in agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-8.

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