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International Food Security Assessment, 2024–34

Author

Listed:
  • Cardell, Lila
  • Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe
  • Ajewole, Kayode
  • Farris, Jarrad
  • Johnson, Michael E.
  • Lin, Jessie
  • Valdes, Constanza
  • Zeng, Wendy

Abstract

Millions of people worldwide face food insecurity and do not have access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs for an active and healthy life. This report utilizes the demand-driven International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model to assist the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and its stakeholders in estimating food security trends in 83 low- and middle-income countries. Compared with 2023, there is now a substantial improvement in food security across the countries covered in the IFSA report. There are 313.0 million fewer people estimated to experience food insecurity in 2024, associated with an average of 3.4 percent growth in per capita income in these countries and the easing of price inflation. However, lingering effects of high food commodity prices and risks associated with ongoing conflicts in key shipping areas contribute to sustained food insecurity levels. The estimated number of food insecure people in 2024 is 824.6 million in the 83 low- and middle-income countries covered by this assessment, representing a 27.5 percent decrease from the 2023 estimate. Overall, 19.0 percent of the IFSA population may be unable to consume the recommended 2,100 kilocalories a day necessary to sustain a healthy and active lifestyle. While facing challenges in the short term, gains in per capita income and lower food commodity prices are projected to improve food accessibility, with the outlook for food security projected to improve in the next 10 years in all countries included in this assessment. By 2034, the number of food insecure people in the 83 IFSA countries is projected to be 274.6 million (5.5 percent of the population), marking a 66.7 percent reduction, compared to the estimated number in 2023. Note that the results presented in this report are based on the macroeconomic assumptions, completed as of August 2023.

Suggested Citation

  • Cardell, Lila & Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe & Ajewole, Kayode & Farris, Jarrad & Johnson, Michael E. & Lin, Jessie & Valdes, Constanza & Zeng, Wendy, 2024. "International Food Security Assessment, 2024–34," Miscellaneous Publications 402734, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersmp:402734
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.402734
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meade, Birgit & Rosen, Stacey & Beghin, John, "undated". "A Consistent Food Demand Framework for International Food Security Assessment," Technical Bulletins 262292, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Regmi, Anita & Seale, James L., 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Beghin, John & Meade, Birgit & Rosen, Stacey, 2017. "A food demand framework for International Food Security Assessment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 827-842.
    4. John Muellbauer, 1975. "Aggregation, Income Distribution and Consumer Demand," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(4), pages 525-543.
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    6. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager, 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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    1. Dong, Xiao & Byrne, Anne T. & Rhone, Alana & Ver Ploeg, Michele, 2025. "Review: untangling the complex economics of the local food retail environment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).

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