IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uersap/327336.html

COVID-19 Working Paper: Single Commodity Export Dependence and the Impacts of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Gerval, Adam
  • Hansen, James

Abstract

This working paper illuminates the impact that volatility in international commodity prices has on U.S. agricultural product export volumes to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The current Coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has created such a period of intense price volatility, offering a unique opportunity for modeling potential effects of a global shock on trade with these nations. By simulating the effects of declining oil prices in 2020 and subsequent years through a shock to gross domestic product (GDP) in oil-dependent nations—i.e., Angola and Nigeria—we can evaluate the impacts of COVID-19 on agricultural trade for key U.S. export commodities to SSA.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerval, Adam & Hansen, James, 2022. "COVID-19 Working Paper: Single Commodity Export Dependence and the Impacts of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa," Administrative Publications 327336, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersap:327336
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.327336
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/327336/files/ap-101.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.327336?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olayungbo, D.O., 2019. "Effects of oil export revenue on economic growth in Nigeria: A time varying analysis of resource curse," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Hjort, Kim & Boussios, David & Seeley, Ralph & Hansen, James, 2018. "The ERS Country-Commodity Linked System: Documenting Its International Country and Regional Agricultural Baseline Models," Technical Bulletins 282511, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2020. "Commodity terms of trade shocks and real effective exchange rate dynamics in Africa's commodity-exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Trostle, Ronald & Seeley, Ralph, 2013. "Developing Countries Dominate World Demand for Agricultural Products," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 07, pages 1-1, September.
    5. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Regmi, Anita & Seale, James L., 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager, 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gerval, Adam & Hansen, James, "undated". "COVID-19 Working Paper: Single Commodity Export Dependence and the Impacts of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa," USDA Miscellaneous 323866, United States Department of Agriculture.
    2. Wunderlich, A.C. & Kohler, A., 2018. "Using empirical Armington and demand elasticities in computable equilibrium models: An illustration with the CAPRI model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 70-80.
    3. Seale, James L. & Solano, Alexis A., 2012. "The changing demand for energy in rich and poor countries over 25years," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1834-1844.
    4. Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe & Xia, Tian & Nava, Noé J. & Li, Xianghong & Cardell, Lila, 2025. "International Income and Price Elasticity Estimates: An Update," Technical Bulletins 358604, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Hertel, By Thomas W. & Baldos, Uris L.C. & Fuglie, Keith O., 2020. "Trade in technology: A potential solution to the food security challenges of the 21st century," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Kira Lancker & Julia Bronnmann, 2022. "Substitution Preferences for Fish in Senegal," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(4), pages 1015-1045, August.
    7. Nelson Villoria & Rachael Garrett & Florian Gollnow & Kimberly Carlson, 2022. "Leakage does not fully offset soy supply-chain efforts to reduce deforestation in Brazil," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Susan Olivia & John Gibson, 2013. "Using Engel curves to measure CPI bias for Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 85-101, April.
    9. Meade, Birgit & Muhammad , Andrew, . "The Influence of Income and Prices on Global Dietary Patterns by Country, Age, and Gender," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 10.
    10. Wainio, John & Dyck, John & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Mitchell, Lorrarine & Zahniser, Steven & Arita, Shawn & Beckman, Jayson F. & Burfisher, Mary E., 2014. "Agriculture in the Trans-Pacific Partnership," Economic Research Report 188429, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    11. James A. Edmonds & Robert Link & Stephanie T. Waldhoff & Ryna Cui, 2017. "A Global Food Demand Model For The Assessment Of Complex Human-Earth Systems," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 1-22, November.
    12. Sands, Ronald D. & Malcolm, Scott A. & Suttles, Shellye A. & Marshall, Elizabeth, 2017. "Dedicated Energy Crops and Competition for Agricultural Land," Economic Research Report 252445, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    13. Hans Lofgren & Martín Cicowiez, 2022. "Taxation, infrastructure investment, growth, and poverty reduction: A case study of Zimbabwe," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0295, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    14. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    15. Hu, Yumeng & Liu, Yu, 2024. "Impact of fertilizer and pesticide reductions on land use in China based on crop-land integrated model," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    16. Dorfleitner, Gregor & Kreuzer, Christian & Sparrer, Christian, 2022. "To sin in secret is no sin at all: On the linkage of policy, society, culture, and firm characteristics with corporate scandals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 762-784.
    17. Andre Deppermann & Petr Havlík & Hugo Valin & Esther Boere & Mario Herrero & Joost Vervoort & Erik Mathijs, 2018. "The market impacts of shortening feed supply chains in Europe," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(6), pages 1401-1410, December.
    18. Cattaneo, Andrea & Federighi, Giovanni & Vaz, Sara, 2021. "The environmental impact of reducing food loss and waste: A critical assessment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    19. Wolfgang Britz & Roberto Roson, 2019. "G-RDEM: A GTAP-Based Recursive Dynamic CGE Model for Long-Term Baseline Generation and Analysis," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 4(1), pages 50-96, June.
    20. Zhou, De & Yu, Xiaohua & Abler, David & Chen, Danhong, 2020. "Projecting meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of income elasticities," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uersap:327336. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.