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Agricultural Banking and Early Warning Models for the Bank Failures of the Late 2000s Great Recession


  • Li, Xiaofei
  • Escalante, Cesar L.
  • Epperson, James E.
  • Gunter, Lewell F.


This paper is designed to validate if the agricultural sector can once again be labeled as an instigator of the late-2000s Great Recession using the early warning models technique. The empirical results indicate that exposure to agribusiness operations does not necessarily enhance a banks’ tendency to fail.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Xiaofei & Escalante, Cesar L. & Epperson, James E. & Gunter, Lewell F., 2012. "Agricultural Banking and Early Warning Models for the Bank Failures of the Late 2000s Great Recession," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119656, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:saea12:119656

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September.
    2. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
    3. Lamont K. Black & Diana Hancock & Wayne Passmore, 2007. "Bank core deposits and the mitigation of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-65, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Blasko, Matej & Sinkey, Joseph Jr., 2006. "Bank asset structure, real-estate lending, and risk-taking," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 53-81, February.
    5. Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November.
    6. Demyanyk, Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2010. "Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 315-324, October.
    7. Belongia, Michael T. & Gilbert, R. Alton, 1989. "Effects Of Management Decisions On Agricultural Bank Failures," Proceedings: 1989 Regional Committee NC-161, October 2-3, 1989, St.Louis, Missouri 127409, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    8. Michael T. Belongia & R. Alton Gilbert, 1990. "The Effects of Management Decisions on Agricultural Bank Failures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(4), pages 901-910.
    9. DeYoung, Robert & Hasan, Iftekhar, 1998. "The performance of de novo commercial banks: A profit efficiency approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 565-587, May.
    10. Fred C. Graham & James E. Horner, 1988. "Bank failure: an evaluation of the factors contributing to the failure of national banks," Proceedings 210, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    11. Gerald A. Hanweck, 1977. "Predicting bank failure," Research Papers in Banking and Financial Economics 19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Coleen C. Pantalone & Marjorie B. Platt, 1987. "Predicting commercial bank failure since deregulation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 37-47.
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    More about this item


    Agricultural Banking; Early warning signals; In-sample accuracy; Out-of-sample forecasting; Agricultural Finance; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; G21; G32; G33; C01;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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