IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332480.html

Futures of agriculture and food systems: impacts on rural job dynamics in SSA

Author

Listed:
  • Douillet, Mathilde
  • Estrades, Carmen

Abstract

In the coming years, several dynamics of transformation of African agriculture and food systems are possible as a consequence of the rising food demand in Africa and worldwide, the growth of African cities, the impacts of climate change on the yields and that of the booming labor force. Although it is impossible to foresee the future path of agriculture in Africa before it unfolds, the aim of this paper is to shed lights on some of the dynamics at stake by using the global dynamic CGE model, MIRAGE, developed by CEPII and IFPRI, incorporating unemployment into the initial model and testing several options of its factor market specification. Our baseline scenario is based on the increase in global and African production as anticipated by the “World Agriculture Towards 2050” of the FAO and population and GDP growth by the CEPII towards 2050. We also explore different assumptions of technical changes in the African agricultural sector and global trade reforms, and compare their impact in terms of the level of agricultural production, volume of trade, availability of food, agricultural income, employment, management of natural resources and regional development.

Suggested Citation

  • Douillet, Mathilde & Estrades, Carmen, 2014. "Futures of agriculture and food systems: impacts on rural job dynamics in SSA," Conference papers 332480, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332480
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332480/files/7000.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2005. "The Wage Curve Reloaded," IZA Discussion Papers 1665, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2013. "Modelling the world economy at the 2050 horizon," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(4), pages 617-654, October.
    3. Stefan Dercon, 2009. "Rural Poverty: Old Challenges in New Contexts," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 24(1), pages 1-28, April.
    4. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2012. "The Great Shift : Macroeconomic projections For the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon," Working Papers hal-00962464, HAL.
    5. Yvan Decreux & Hugo Valin, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 2007-15, CEPII research center.
    6. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
    7. Christiaensen, Luc & Demery, Lionel & Kuhl, Jesper, 2011. "The (evolving) role of agriculture in poverty reduction--An empirical perspective," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 239-254, November.
    8. repec:hal:pseose:hal-00975545 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré, 2021. "Calibrating Long-Term Trade Baselines in General Equilibrium," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Peter Dixon & Joseph Francois & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (ed.), POLICY ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel, chapter 4, pages 97-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia, 2014. "The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe," CEPS Papers 9142, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    3. Jean Chateau & Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2015. "Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(1), pages 67-100.
    4. Fontagné, Lionel & Foure, Jean, 2016. "Is Trade Facilitation a Free Lunch? A General Equilibrium Approach," Conference papers 332757, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Baltagi, Badi H. & Rokicki, Bartlomiej, 2013. "The Polish Wage Curve: Micro Panel Data Analysis Based on the Polish Labor Force Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 7812, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Kuster, Robert & Ellersdorfer, Ingo & Fahl, Ulrich, 2007. "A CGE-Analysis of Energy Policies Considering Labor Market Imperfections and Technology Specifications," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 12035, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Robert Küster & ingo Ellersdorfer & Ulrich Fahl, 2007. "A CGE-Analysis of Energy Policies Considering Labor Market Imperfections and Technology Specifications," Working Papers 2007.7, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2006. "The Wage Curve: An Entry Written for the New Palgrave, 2nd Edition," IZA Discussion Papers 2138, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Dorosh, Paul A. & Thurlow, James, 2014. "Beyond agriculture versus nonagriculture: Decomposing sectoral growth–poverty linkages in five African countries," IFPRI discussion papers 1391, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe & Wolf, Katja, 2009. "New evidence on the dynamic wage curve for Western Germany: 1980-2004," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 47-51, January.
    11. Baltagi, Badi H. & Rokicki, Bartlomiej, 2014. "The spatial Polish wage curve with gender effects: Evidence from the Polish Labor Survey," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 36-47.
    12. López Enciso, Enrique & Ramírez Giraldo, María Teresa (ed.), 2011. "Formación de precios y salarios en Colombia T.2," Books, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, volume 2, number 2011b-04, November.
    13. Douillet, Mathilde, 2011. "Which trade integration scheme can best help Sub-Saharan Africa develop and export more processed agricultural goods?:," IFPRI discussion papers 1119, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Fouré, Jean & Guimbard, Houssein & Monjon, Stéphanie, 2016. "Border carbon adjustment and trade retaliation: What would be the cost for the European Union?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 349-362.
    15. Jean Fouré & Houssein Guimbard & Stéphanie Monjon, 2013. "Border Carbon Ajustment in Europe and Trade Retaliation: What would be the Cost for European Union?," Working Papers 2013-34, CEPII research center.
    16. Michel-Pierre Chélini & Georges Prat, 2019. "Verständnis der langfristigen Dynamik von Arbeitslosigkeit und Löhnen in Frankreich [Understanding the Long Run Dynamics of French Unemployment and Wages]," Post-Print hal-04400810, HAL.
    17. Dosi, G. & Pereira, M.C. & Roventini, A. & Virgillito, M.E., 2017. "When more flexibility yields more fragility: The microfoundations of Keynesian aggregate unemployment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 162-186.
    18. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's Box: Modelling World Trade Patterns at the 2035 Horizon," Working Papers 2013-22, CEPII research center.
    19. Anne-Célia Disdier & Charlotte Emlinger & Jean Fouré, 2015. "Atlantic versus Pacific Agreement in Agri-food Sectors: Does the Winner Take it All?," PSE - G-MOND WORKING PAPERS halshs-01190840, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332480. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.