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Evaluating Crop Forecast Accuracy for Corn and Soybeans in the United States, China, Brazil, and Argentina

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Listed:
  • Cumming, Katie
  • Mattos, Fabio
  • Etienne, Xiaoli L.

Abstract

Commodity prices are determined by the dynamics of supply and demand and they oscillate over time according to market participants’ price expectations, which are in return formed and updated based on new information available on the market. Previous studies have explored how the release of supply and demand news affect futures prices (e.g. McKenzie, 2008). This process of price discovery is crucial for various business decisions in the agricultural sector, such as production, marketing, and risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Cumming, Katie & Mattos, Fabio & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2017. "Evaluating Crop Forecast Accuracy for Corn and Soybeans in the United States, China, Brazil, and Argentina," 2017 Conference, April 24-25, 2017, St. Louis, Missouri 285864, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:n13417:285864
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285864
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Botto, Augusto C. & Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2006. "Accuracy Trends and Sources of Forecast Errors in WASDE Balance Sheet Categories for Corn and Soybeans," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21332, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Andrew M. McKenzie, 2008. "Pre-Harvest Price Expectations for Corn: The Information Content of USDA Reports and New Crop Futures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 351-366.
    3. Egelkraut, Thorsten M. & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2003. "An Evaluation of Crop Forecast Accuracy for Corn and Soybeans: USDA and Private Information Agencies," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(01), pages 1-17, April.
    4. Bailey, DeeVon & Brorsen, B. Wade, 1998. "Trends In The Accuracy Of Usda Production Forecasts For Beef And Pork," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Linwood A. Hoffman & Xiaoli L. Etienne & Scott H. Irwin & Evelyn V. Colino & Jose I. Toasa, 2015. "Forecast performance of WASDE price projections for U.S. corn," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(S1), pages 157-171, November.
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