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Using the Murphy Model to Provide Short-Run Macroeconomic Closure for Orani

Author

Listed:
  • Breece, James H.
  • McLaren, Keith R.
  • Murphy, Chris
  • Powell, Alan A.

Abstract

A macro model incorporating rational expectations in financial markets (the Murphy Model - MM) is used to endogenize the macroeconomic environment for a comprehensive general equilibrium model (ORANI). The interface exploits the existence of variables which are endogenous to both models, calibrating on a shock to government spending, which is the principal common exogeneity. The responses of the half-dozen doubly endogenous variables feature prominently in the calibration procedure, which minimizes any conflict between the stories told about these variables by the two models. Prospective benefits include: (1) to the numerous policy-oriented users of ORANI, a facility allowing the macroeconomic environment to be determined by a macrodynamic model such as MM; (2) to these users, reassurance that ORANI's short-run translates in calendar time to about two years; (3) to the clientele of a macro model, the possibility of much more detailed projections..
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Suggested Citation

  • Breece, James H. & McLaren, Keith R. & Murphy, Chris & Powell, Alan A., 1991. "Using the Murphy Model to Provide Short-Run Macroeconomic Closure for Orani," Papers 316149, Impact Project Archive.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ircipa:316149
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.316149
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P.D. Jonson & W.J. McKibbin & R.G. Trevor, 1980. "Models and Multipliers," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8006, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. repec:bla:ecorec:v:59:y:1983:i:165:p:166-79 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bruce F. Parsell & Alan A. Powell & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 1991. "The Effects of Fiscal Restraint on the Australian Economy as Projected by the Murphy and MSG2 Models: A Comparison," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(2), pages 97-114, June.
    4. Murphy, C W, 1988. "Rational Expectations in Financial Markets and the Murphy Model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(0), pages 61-88, Supplemen.
    5. Parsell, Bruce & Powell, Alan & Wilcoxen, Peter, 1989. "The Reconciliation of Computable General Equilibrium and Macroeconomic Modelling: Grounds for Hope?," Papers 295060, Impact Project Archive.
    6. Dixon, Peter B. & Parmenter, B. R. & Powell, Alan A., 1984. "The role of miniatures in computable general equilibrium modelling : Experience from ORANI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 421-428, October.
    7. Murphy, C W, 1988. "An Overview of the Murphy Model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(0), pages 175-199, Supplemen.
    8. Bruce F. Parsell & Alan A. Powell & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 1991. "The Effects of Fiscal Restraint on the Australian Economy as Projected by the Murphy and MSG2 Models: A Comparison," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(2), pages 97-114, June.
    9. Pearson, K. R., 1988. "Automating the computation of solutions of large economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 385-395, October.
    10. repec:bla:ecorec:v:67:y:1991:i:197:p:97-114 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. James B Davies, 2009. "Combining microsimulation with CGE and macro modelling for distributional analysis in developing and transition countries," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 2(1), pages 49-56.
    2. Dixon, Peter B. & Koopman, Robert B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "The MONASH Style of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Framework for Practical Policy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 23-103, Elsevier.
    3. James B. Davies, 2004. "Microsimulation, CGE and Macro Modelling for Transition and Developing Economies," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2004-08, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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