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The Effects of Fiscal Restraint on the Australian Economy as Projected by the Murphy and MSG2 Models: A Comparison

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  • Parsell, Bruce
  • Powell, Alan
  • Wilcoxen, Peter

Abstract

In the aftermath of the rational expectations debate and the onslaught of the New Classical economics, some builders of macroeconometric models have begun to change some of their habits, arguably for the better. In particular, neoclassical discipline is increasingly respected in the formation of the steady states or balanced growth solutions of the latest versions of several models (e.g., Australia's Murphy Model, and the McKibbin-Sachs Global [MSG21 Model). As well, the behaviour of certain variables (especially exchange rates and investment) increasingly tends to be linked to intertemporal optimization. In this paper we report on simulations made with the Murphy and MSG2 models of the effects of an unanticipated cut in government spending lasting for five years. We explain the results largely in terms of the innovative features mentioned above.

Suggested Citation

  • Parsell, Bruce & Powell, Alan & Wilcoxen, Peter, 1989. "The Effects of Fiscal Restraint on the Australian Economy as Projected by the Murphy and MSG2 Models: A Comparison," Impact Project Archive 295057, Impact Research Centre, University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ircipa:295057
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.295057
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Murphy, C W, 1988. "Rational Expectations in Financial Markets and the Murphy Model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(0), pages 61-88, Supplemen.
    2. repec:bla:ecorec:v:64:y:1988:i:186:p:209-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Murphy, C W, 1988. "An Overview of the Murphy Model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(0), pages 175-199, Supplemen.
    4. WARWICK J. McKIBBIN & ERIC S. SIEGLOFF, 1988. "A Note on Aggregate Investment in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(3), pages 209-215, September.
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. JAMES H. BREECE & KEITH R. McLAREN & CHRISTOPHER W. MURPHY & ALAN A. POWELL, 1994. "Using the Murphy Model to Provide Short‐run Macroeconomic Closure for ORANI," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(210), pages 292-314, September.
    3. Parsell, Bruce & Powell, Alan & Wilcoxen, Peter, 1989. "The Reconciliation of Computable General Equilibrium and Macroeconomic Modelling: Grounds for Hope?," Impact Project Archive 295060, Impact Research Centre, University of Melbourne.
    4. Ross A. Williams & Richard H. Snape, 1999. "Distinguished Fellow of the Economic Society of Australia, 1998: Professor Alan Powell," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(1), pages 1-4, March.

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