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A Note on Aggregate Investment in Australia

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  • WARWICK J. McKIBBIN
  • ERIC S. SIEGLOFF

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to explore the relevance of Tobin's ‘q theory’ of investment in explaining aggregate investment in Australia, over the period from December 1966 to December 1986. Using standard capital stock data, the q theory performs poorly. However, the cost of adjustment model implies that the conventional capital stock data need to be revised to allow for these adjustment costs. Once this is done, it is found that the q theory explains a statistically significant (although small) proportion of the movements in aggregate investment The residual behaviour of investment is well explained by an accelerator model

Suggested Citation

  • WARWICK J. McKIBBIN & ERIC S. SIEGLOFF, 1988. "A Note on Aggregate Investment in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(3), pages 209-215, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:64:y:1988:i:3:p:209-215
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1988.tb02059.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    2. McKibbin, Warwick J, 1988. "Policy Analysis with the MSG2 Model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(0), pages 126-150, Supplemen.
    3. A. B. Treadway, 1969. "On Rational Entrepreneurial Behaviour and the Demand for Investment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 36(2), pages 227-239.
    4. Stegman, Trevor R, 1982. "The Estimation of an Accelerator-Type Investment Function with a Profitability Constraint, by the Technique of Switching Regressions," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(39), pages 379-391, December.
    5. Jeffrey Carmichael & Nigel Dews, 1987. "The Role and Consequences of Investment in Recent Australian Economic Growth," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8704, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. George M. Von Furstenberg, 1977. "Corporate Investment: Does Market Valuation Matter in the Aggregate?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(2), pages 347-408.
    7. Malcolm L. Edey & Elaine J. Kerrison & Gordon D. Menzies, 1987. "Transmission of External Shocks in the RBII Model," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8710, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Kohli, Ulrich R & Ryan, Christopher J, 1986. "Australian Business Investment: A New Look at the Neoclassical Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 62(179), pages 451-467, December.
    9. Ulrich Kohli & Christopher J. Ryan, 1986. "Australian Business Investment: A New Look at the Neoclassical Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 62(4), pages 451-467, December.
    10. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 321-321.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ross Guest & Ian McDonald, 1998. "The Socially Optimal Level of Saving in Australia, 1960‐61 to 1994‐95," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 213-235, September.
    2. Bruce F. Parsell & Alan A. Powell & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 1989. "The Reconciliation of Computable General Equilibrium and Macroeconomic Modelling: Grounds for Hope?," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-44, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Karen Mills & Steven Morling & Warren Tease, 1994. "Balance Sheet Restructuring and Investment," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 27(1), pages 83-100, January.
    4. Guest, Ross S. & McDonald, Ian M., 2001. "The volatility of the socially optimal level of investment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 901-928, November.
    5. Karen Mills & Steven Morling & Warren Tease, 1994. "The Influence of Financial Factors on Corporate Investment," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9402, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Ben J. Heudra & William M. Scarth, 1990. "Investment Spending in Australia: Further Study and Interpretation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 66(4), pages 295-307, December.
    7. Guest, Ross & McDonald, Ian, 1999. "An evaluation of the saving, investment, and current account balances of five ASEAN economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 445-464.
    8. John B. Burbddge & William M. Scarth & Peter J. Stemp, 1994. "Saving, Investment and Current Account Dynamics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(211), pages 397-407, December.

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