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Forecasting with a Computable General Equilibrium Model

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  • Higgs, Peter

Abstract

Computable general equilibrium (hereafter CGE) models represent a rapidly emerging field in applied economic analysis. CGE • models have, with few exceptions, been used solely for policy analysis; however there is a growing demand for forecasts from these models. Let a "set of scenarios" (or information set) on the exogenous variables of a CGE model denote not only point estimates, but also measures of their precision (and, where relevant, measures of correlation among these variables). This paper gives an exposition of a method of transforming such an information set into point forecasts of the CGE model's endogenous variables and associated set of confidence intervals. This method will not usually require repeated solutions of the CGE model for use with different information sets on the exogenous variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Higgs, Peter, 1987. "Forecasting with a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Impact Project Archive 295055, Impact Research Centre, University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ircipa:295055
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.295055
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/295055/files/melbourne022.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter B. Dixon & B. R. Parmenter & Mark Horridge, 1986. "Forecasting Versus Policy Analysis with the ORANI Model," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-56, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    2. Adams, Philip & Higgs, Peter, 1986. "Calibration Of Computable General Equilibrium Models From Synthetic Benchmark Equilibrium Data Sets," Impact Project Archive 295205, Impact Research Centre, University of Melbourne.
    3. Cooper, Russel, 1983. "A Tariff Experiment on the Interfaced ORANI-Macro System," Impact Project Archive 295051, Impact Research Centre, University of Melbourne.
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    Cited by:

    1. Higgs, Peter, 1983. "A Forward Looking Approach to Portfolio Analysis Using A Computable General Equilibrium Model," Impact Project Archive 295056, Impact Research Centre, University of Melbourne.

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