Economic valuation of the impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe
The objective of this study is to provide a European assessment of the potential effects of climate change on agricultural crop production computing monetary estimates of these impacts for the European agricultural sector. The future scenarios incorporate socio economic projections derived from several SRES scenarios and climate projections obtained from global climate models and regional climate models. The quantitative results are based simulations using the GTAP general equilibrium models system that includes all relevant economic activities. The estimated changes in the exports and imports of agricultural goods, value of GDP and crop prices under the climate and socio-economic scenarios show significant regional differences between northern and southern European countries. The patterns are positive effects except on Mediterranean countries. The most important increases seem to concern the continental region, where the productivity increases enlarge GDP more intensively due to the importance of agricultural sector in the region. The monetary estimates also show that in all cases uncertainty derived from socio-economic scenarios has a larger effect than the ones derived from climate scenarios.
|Date of creation:||2008|
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- Francesco Bosello & Jian Zhang, 2005. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture," Working Papers 2005.94, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Antle, John M. & Capalbo, Susan Marie, 2000.
"Econometric-Process Models For Integrated Assessment Of Agricultural Production Systems,"
Trade Research Center Research Discussion Papers
29234, Montana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics.
- John M. Antle & Susan M. Capalbo, 2001. "Econometric-Process Models for Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Production Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 389-401.
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