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Projections of economic impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe

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  • Quiroga, Sonia
  • Iglesias, Ana

Abstract

The objective of this study is to provide monetary estimates of the impacts of climate change in European agricultural sector. The future scenarios incorporate socio-economic projections derived from several socio-economic scenarios and experiments conducted using global climate models and regional climate models. The quantitative results are based simulations using the GTAP general equilibrium models system that includes all relevant economic activities. The estimated changes in the exports and imports of agricultural goods, value of GDP and value of world supply under the climate and socio-economic scenarios show significant regional differences between northern and southern European countries. The simulations were based on crop productivity changes that considered no restrictions in water availability for irrigation or restrictions in the application of nitrogen fertilizer. Therefore the results should be considered optimistic from the production point and pessimistic from the environmental point of view. Water restrictions and socio-economic variables that modify the probabilities of change occurring may also be considered in a later stage of the study. The monetary estimates show that in all cases uncertainty derived from socio-economic scenarios has a larger effect than the derive from climate scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Quiroga, Sonia & Iglesias, Ana, 2007. "Projections of economic impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe," 101st Seminar, July 5-6, 2007, Berlin Germany 9264, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa101:9264
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.9264
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John M. Antle & Susan M. Capalbo, 2001. "Econometric-Process Models for Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Production Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 389-401.
    2. Fankhauser, Samuel & S.J. Tol, Richard, 2005. "On climate change and economic growth," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Basist, Alan & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Ihsan Ajwad, Mohamed & Kogan, Felix & Williams, Claude, 2004. "Cross-sectional analyses of climate change impacts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3350, The World Bank.
    4. Francesco Bosello & Jian Zhang, 2005. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture," Working Papers 2005.94, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. William D. Nordhaus, 2006. "The "Stern Review" on the Economics of Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 12741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Garcia, Maria & Viladrich-Grau, Montserrat, 2009. "The economic relevance of climate variables in agriculture: The case of Spain," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 9(02), pages 1-32.
    2. Martinsohn, Maria & Hansen, Heiko, 2012. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Economics of Dairy Farming – a Review and Evaluation," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 61(2).
    3. Julian A. Lampietti & David G. Lugg & Philip Van der Celen & Amelia Branczik, 2009. "The Changing Face of Rural Space : Agriculture and Rural Development in the Western Balkans," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13541, July.
    4. Martinsohn, Maria & Hansen, Heiko, 2012. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Economics of Dairy Farming – a Review and Evaluation," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(02), pages 1-16, May.
    5. Zeynep K. Hansen & Gary D. Libecap & Scott E. Lowe, 2011. "Climate Variability and Water Infrastructure: Historical Experience in the Western United States," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present, pages 253-280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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