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Projections of economic impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe

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  • Quiroga, Sonia
  • Iglesias, Ana

Abstract

RESUMEN This study provides monetary estimates of the impacts of climate change in European agriculture. Future scenarios are derived from several socio-economic scenarios and experiments conducted using global climate moedls and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model across simulations based on crop productivity changes that consider no restrictions in the volume of water available for irrigation in current irrigated areas or in the application of nitrogen fertilizer. Thus the results should be considered optimistic from the production point and pessimistic from the environmental point of view. Regional differences between northern and southern European countries are found and the monetary estimates show that uncertainty derived from socio-economic scenarios has a larger effect than uncertainty derived from climate scenarios. ABSTRACT Este estudio proporciona estimaciones económicas de los efectos del cambio climático en la agricultura Europeal. Los escenarios futuros incorporan proyecciones de cambios socio-económicos y variables climáticas derivadas de modelos de clima global y regional. La valoración económica utiliza el modelo de equilibrio general (GTAP), donde las simulaciones se basan en cambios en la productividad de los cultivos sin considerar restricciones en el volumen de agua de riego en las zonas actuales de regadío ni de fertilizantes. Así, los resultados se pueden considerar optimistas desde el punto de vista productivo, pero pesimistas desde el punto de vista ambiental. Se observan diferencias significativas entre el norte y el sur de Europa y las estimaciones económicas muestran que la incertidumbre asociada a los escenarios socio-económicos es mayor que la asociada a los escenarios climáticos.

Suggested Citation

  • Quiroga, Sonia & Iglesias, Ana, 2007. "Projections of economic impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 7(14), pages 1-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:earnsa:7053
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.7053
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    1. Martinsohn, Maria & Hansen, Heiko, 2012. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Economics of Dairy Farming – a Review and Evaluation," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(02), pages 1-16, May.
    2. Julian A. Lampietti & David G. Lugg & Philip Van der Celen & Amelia Branczik, 2009. "The Changing Face of Rural Space : Agriculture and Rural Development in the Western Balkans," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13541, December.
    3. Garcia, Maria & Viladrich-Grau, Montserrat, 2009. "The economic relevance of climate variables in agriculture: The case of Spain," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 9(02), pages 1-32.
    4. Zeynep K. Hansen & Gary D. Libecap & Scott E. Lowe, 2011. "Climate Variability and Water Infrastructure: Historical Experience in the Western United States," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present, pages 253-280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Martinsohn, Maria & Hansen, Heiko, 2012. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Economics of Dairy Farming – a Review and Evaluation," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 61(2).

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