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Policy Design as an Irreversible Investment Under Uncertainty: Norwegian Agriculture and the WTO

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  • Mittenzwei, Klaus

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the timing of an agricultural policy reform under uncertainty. The focus is on the opportunity cost of giving up the option to wait when implementing a policy reform. Including the option value in applied policy analysis can help explain why conventional analyses may find observed policies to be Pareto-inferior. Furthermore, it explains why otherwise profitable policy reforms may be delayed. The theoretical model is applied to Norwegian agricultural policy anticipating a prospective WTO agreement. It is argued that the option value should be incorporated into applied policy analysis when high uncertainty prevails.

Suggested Citation

  • Mittenzwei, Klaus, 2002. "Policy Design as an Irreversible Investment Under Uncertainty: Norwegian Agriculture and the WTO," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24875, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae02:24875
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24875
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pindyck, Robert S., 2000. "Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental policy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 233-259, July.
    2. Salhofer, K., 1996. "Efficient income redistribution for a small country using optimal combined instruments," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(3), February.
    3. Kola, Jukka, 1993. "Efficiency of Supply Control Programmes in Income Redistribution," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 20(2), pages 183-198.
    4. Rickertsen, Kyrre, 1998. "The demand for food and beverages in Norway," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 89-100, January.
    5. Abebayehu Tegene & Keith Wiebe & Betsey Kuhn, 1999. "Irreversible Investment Under Uncertainty: Conservation Easements and the Option to Develop Agricultural Land," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 203-219.
    6. Fisher, Anthony C & Hanemann, W Michael, 1990. "Option Value: Theory and Measurement," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 17(2), pages 167-180.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Option value; Policy reform; WTO; Norway; Uncertainty; International Relations/Trade; C61; D78;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation

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