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Avian Influenza: outbreaks and the impact on UK consumer demand for poultry

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  • Siettou, Christina
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    According to FAO (2008) the year 2006 was identified as the ‘peak’ of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 with 60 countries reporting outbreaks. The UK had its first confirmed AI outbreak in March 2006 and, to date, the country has experienced eleven AI outbreaks. Most countries reporting AI outbreaks had, as a result, experienced a highly negative impact on their poultry consumption. This paper sets out to examine how AI outbreaks affected UK consumer demand for poultry. Pilot data have been obtained on a four weekly basis from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) for the period May 2nd 2010 to March 1st 2015. By employing the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model, the preliminary results have indicated that during the examined period poultry meat had the highest demand in terms of monetary amounts accounting for 43 per cent of the market. Overall, the pilot data revealed that there is no evidence to support that the occurrence of an AI outbreak, either in the UK or elsewhere in the world, had affected consumption of poultry in the UK. This result complies with the FAS London statement that UK consumers have ‘faith’ in poultry.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/236328
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    Paper provided by Agricultural Economics Society in its series 90th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2016, Warwick University, Coventry, UK with number 236328.

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    Date of creation: Apr 2016
    Handle: RePEc:ags:aesc16:236328
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    1. Beach, Robert H. & Zhen, Chen, 2008. "Consumer Purchasing Behavior in Response to Media Coverage of Avian Influenza," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6750, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Taljaard, Pieter R. & Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta & van Schalkwyk, Herman D., 2004. "The demand for meat in South Africa: An almost ideal estimation," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 43(4), December.
    3. Taha, Fawzi A., 2007. "How Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) Has Affected World Poultry-Meat Trade," Miscellaneous Publications 7360, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Taljaard, Pieter R. & van Schalkwyk, Herman D. & Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta, 2006. "Choosing between the AIDS and Rotterdam models: A meat demand analysis case study," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 45(2), June.
    5. Elif Akben & Gökhan Özertan & Aslýhan D. Spaulding & Sayed H. Saghaian, 2008. "Consumer responses to the H5N1 Avian Influenza: the case of Turkey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 4(15), pages 1-9.
    6. Brian P. Poi, 2012. "Easy demand-system estimation with quaids," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 12(3), pages 433-446, September.
    7. Takashi Ishida & Noriko Ishikawa & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2010. "Impact of BSE and bird flu on consumers' meat demand in Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 49-56.
    8. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
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