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Coastal Dynamics and Adaptation to Uncertain Sea Level Rise: Optimal Portfolios for Salt Marsh Migration

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  • Duran, Orencio
  • Johnston, Robert J.
  • Kirwan, Matthew L.
  • Leroux, Anke D.
  • Martin, Vance L.

Abstract

The sustainability of dynamic natural systems often depends on their capacity to adapt to uncertain climate-related changes, where different management options may be combined to facilitate this adaptation. Salt marshes exemplify such a system. Marsh sustainability under rapid sea level rise requires the preservation of transgression zones - undeveloped uplands onto which marshes migrate. Whether these uplands eventually become marsh depends on uncertain sea level rise and natural dynamics that determine migration onto different land types. Under conditions such as these, systematically diversi ed management actions likely outperform ad hoc or non-diversi ed alternatives. This paper develops the first adaptation portfolio model designed to optimize the bene fits of a migrating coastal resource. Results are illustrated using a case study of marsh conservation in Virginia, USA. Results suggest that models of this type can enhance adaptation benefits beyond those available via current approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Duran, Orencio & Johnston, Robert J. & Kirwan, Matthew L. & Leroux, Anke D. & Martin, Vance L., 2019. "Coastal Dynamics and Adaptation to Uncertain Sea Level Rise: Optimal Portfolios for Salt Marsh Migration," 2019 Conference (63rd), February 12-15, 2019, Melbourne, Australia 285075, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society (AARES).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare19:285075
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285075
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    Cited by:

    1. Anke D. Leroux & Vance L. Martin & Kathryn A. St. John, 2022. "Modeling time varying risk of natural resource assets: Implications of climate change," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(1), pages 225-257, January.
    2. Matsuki, Takashi & Pan, Lei, 2021. "Per capita carbon emissions convergence in developing Asia: A century of evidence from covariate unit root test with endogenous structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. Christos Makriyannis & Robert J. Johnston & Ewa Zawojska, 2022. "Do numerical probabilities promote informed stated preference responses under inherent uncertainty? Insight from a coastal adaptation choice experiment," Working Papers 2022-05, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.

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